Probability and statistics in forensic science
FOS
18 July 2016 to 21 December 2016
Programme theme
While there have been dramatic advances in the range and scale of forensic techniques used to help solve legal cases, the way that the probative value of forensic evidence is presented in courts is rudimentary and often flawed. In particular, where probative value is presented in probabilistic and statistical terms there have been numerous instances of misunderstanding leading to miscarriages of justice. Yet there are emerging Bayesian-based probabilistic frameworks - for evaluating forensic evidence and combining it with other types of evidence – that have the potential to improve dramatically many aspects of the criminal justice system.
The programme will develop the main research topics in this area, such as the use of Bayesian networks for combining and evaluating multiple types of evidence, and statistical methods for DNA analysis, particularly in the difficult situations that arise in actual cases of forensic detection: mixed, low template or degraded DNA samples or rare Y-haplotypes. We will also examine the role statistical databases play in other types of trace evidence such as fibre analysis, soil analysis, and drug traces on banknotes.
The programme will address the fundamental mathematical, statistical and algorithmic challenges in developing the methods to increase their reliability, and ensure their consistency and applicability to real cases. A small number of well known cases (in which probabilistic issues related to DNA and other types of evidence were critical) will be used as a common vehicle for developing and articulating the research. The programme will also address the problem of lack of consensus on methodology amongst the forensic community, and of conflicting, controversial and widely misinterpreted court authorities on the application and communication of the methods. The major barriers facing the optimal use of mathematics in the courtroom are on three levels: scientific, cultural, and communication. The programme addresses all three types of barriers in an interdisciplinary manner, and includes both research and workshops that consider the problems of introducing the latest scientific knowledge to members of the forensic and legal professions and the task of communicating these ideas to the widest possible public.
A major goal of the programme is to produce a consensual set of guidelines specifying conditions under which specific techniques can be used to provide results and reliability estimates that are sufficiently certain to be presented in court without the risk of being challenged on appeal.
The Institute kindly requests that any papers published as a result of this programme’s activities are credited as such. Please acknowledge the support of the Institute in your paper using the following text:
The author(s) would like to thank the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge, for support and hospitality during the programme Probability and statistics in forensic science, where work on this paper was undertaken. This work was supported by EPSRC grant EP/K032208/1.
Preprints
| Title | Year | Programme | Publication Date |
|---|---|---|---|
The Yara Gambirasio case: Combining evidence in a complex DNA mixture caseAuthors: Therese Graversen, Julia Mortera, Giampietro Lago |
2016 | FOS | 10 September 2019 |
Twelve guiding principles and recommendations for dealing with quantitative evidence in criminal lawAuthors: Norman Fenton, Richard Gill, David Lagnado, Leila Schneps, David Balding |
2016 | FOS | 20 June 2017 |
Graphical Models for Forensic AnalysisAuthors: A. Philip Dawid, Julia Mortera |
2016 | FOS | 2 March 2017 |
Is the Gini index of inequality overly sensitive to changes in the middle of the income distribution?Authors: Joseph Gastwirth |
2016 | FOS | 2 March 2017 |
Probability, propensity and probability of propensities (and of probabilities)Authors: Giulio D'Agostini |
2016 | FOS | 2 March 2017 |
Assessing the Admissibility of a New Generation of Forensic Voice Comparison TestimonyAuthors: Geoffrey Stewart Morrison, William Thompson |
2016 | FOS | 2 March 2017 |
A comment on the PCAST report: Skip the “match”/“non-match” stageAuthors: David Kaye, David Balding, Duncan Taylor, Philip Dawid, et al., Geoffrey Stewart Morrison |
2016 | FOS | 13 December 2016 |
The waves and the sigmas (to say nothing of the 750 GeV mirage)Authors: Giulio D'Agostini |
2016 | FOS | 21 October 2016 |
Paternity testing and other inference about relationships from DNA mixturesAuthors: Peter Green, Julia Mortera |
2016 | FOS | 21 October 2016 |
Workshops
The nature of questions arising in court that can be addressed via probability and statistical methods
30 August 2016 to 2 September 2016
Bayesian networks and argumentation in evidence analysis
26 September 2016 to 29 September 2016
Statistical modelling of scientific evidence
7 November 2016 to 11 November 2016
Seminars
| Wednesday 24th August 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 to 10:00 |
Jane Hutton University of Warwick |
Discussion Room | |
| 10:00 to 10:30 |
Richard Gill Universiteit Leiden |
Discussion Room | |
| 10:30 to 11:00 |
Nadine Smit University College London |
Discussion Room | |
| 14:00 to 14:30 |
Patricia Wiltshire University of Aberdeen |
Discussion Room | |
| 14:30 to 15:00 |
Norman Fenton Queen Mary University of London |
Discussion Room | |
| 15:30 to 16:00 |
David Lagnado University College London |
Discussion Room | |
| 16:00 to 16:30 |
Joseph Gastwirth George Washington University |
Discussion Room | |
| Wednesday 21st September 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 to 12:00 |
Geoffrey Stewart Morrison University of Alberta |
Room 2 | 
|
| Thursday 6th October 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 to 16:00 |
Frans Alkemade None / Other |
Room 1 | |
| Thursday 13th October 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 to 12:30 |
Therese Graversen Københavns Universitet (University of Copenhagen) |
Discussion Room | |
| Thursday 3rd November 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 to 12:00 |
Sandy Zabell Northwestern University |
Room 2 | |
| Monday 14th November 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 16:00 to 17:00 |
Gerd Gigerenzer Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung |
Room 1 |
|
| Tuesday 6th December 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 to 12:00 |
Jacob de Zoete Universiteit van Amsterdam |
Room 2 |
|
| Friday 9th December 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 to 12:00 |
Jane Hutton University of Warwick |
Room 2 |
|
Organisers
- David Balding University of Melbourne; University College London
- Norman Fenton Queen Mary University of London
- Richard Gill Universiteit Leiden
- David Lagnado University College London
- Leila Schneps Institut de Mathématiques de Jussieu
Speakers
- Frans Alkemade None / Other
- Jacob de Zoete Universiteit van Amsterdam
- Norman Fenton Queen Mary University of London
- Joseph Gastwirth George Washington University
- Gerd Gigerenzer Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung
- Richard Gill Universiteit Leiden
- Therese Graversen Københavns Universitet (University of Copenhagen)
- Jane Hutton University of Warwick
- David Lagnado University College London
- Geoffrey Stewart Morrison University of Alberta
- Nadine Smit University College London
- Patricia Wiltshire University of Aberdeen
- Sandy Zabell Northwestern University
Participants
- Colin Aitken University of Edinburgh
- Frans Alkemade None / Other
- Mikkel Andersen Aalborg Universitet
- John Aston University of Cambridge
- David Balding University of Melbourne; University College London
- Matteo Battilana EPFL - Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
- Charles Berger Ministerie van Veiligheid en Justitie
- Floris Bex Universiteit Utrecht
- Sheila Bird Medical Research Council; University of Strathclyde
- Neil Bramley University College London
- Amke Caliebe Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
- Alicia Carriquiry Iowa State University
- Giulia Cereda Université de Lausanne; Universiteit Leiden
- Hana Chockler King's College London
- Saoirse Connor Desai City University, London
- Anthony Constantinou Queen Mary University of London
- Maria Cuellar Carnegie Mellon University
- James Curran University of Auckland
- Giulio D'Agostini Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza; INFN, Roma La Sapienza
- Christian Dahlman Lund University
- Philip Dawid University of Cambridge
- Simon De Smet University of Cambridge
- Jacob de Zoete Universiteit van Amsterdam
- Eugene Dementiev Queen Mary University of London
- Norman Fenton Queen Mary University of London
- Stephen Fienberg Carnegie Mellon University
- Michael Finkelstein Columbia University
- Angela Gallop Axiom International Ltd
- Paolo Garbolino IUAV University of Venice
- Rene Gaudoin None / Other
- Gerd Gigerenzer Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung
- Richard Gill Universiteit Leiden
- Peter Gill University of Oslo
- Therese Graversen Københavns Universitet (University of Copenhagen)
- Peter Green University of Bristol
- Ulrike Hahn University of London
- David Hamer University of Sydney
- Lasana Harris University College Dublin
- Stephan Hartmann Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
- David Hawksworth CBE Natural History Museum; None / Other
- Keith Inman California State University
- Eleanor Jeffrey-Chaplen University of Kent
- Hylke Jellema Rijksuniversiteit Groningen
- Lotem Kaplan Carnegie Mellon University
- Jeroen Keppens King's College London
- Ate Kloosterman Aalborg Universitet
- David Lagnado University College London
- Helge Langseth Norwegian University of Science and Technology
- Steffen Lauritzen University of Copenhagen
- Richard Lempert University of Michigan
- Amanda Luby Carnegie Mellon University
- David Lucy Lancaster University
- Anne Ruth mackor University of Groningen
- Kristy Martire University of New South Wales
- Anjali Mazumder Carnegie Mellon University; University of Warwick
- Georgina Meakin University College London
- Björn Meder Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung
- Ronald Meester Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
- Ruth Morgan University College London
- Geoffrey Stewart Morrison University of Alberta
- Julia Mortera Università degli Studi Roma Tre
- Sherry Nakhaeizadeh University College London
- Martin Neil Queen Mary University of London
- Erik Nyberg Monash University
- Magda Osman Queen Mary University of London; University College London
- Richard Overill King's College London
- Paula Parpart University College London
- Sue Pope
- Roberto Puch-Solis
- Elise Raphael
- Paul Roberts University of Nottingham
- Bernard Robertson LexisNexis
- Norah Rudin
- Charles Sauleau Université de Franche-Comté
- Leila Schneps Institut de Mathématiques de Jussieu
- Eric Schulz University College London
- Tamara Shengelia University College London
- Bernard Silverman
- Klaas Slooten Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
- Nadine Smit University College London
- Maarten Speekenbrink University College London
- David Spiegelhalter University of Cambridge
- Lonneke Stevens Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
- Franco Taroni Université de Lausanne
- Cheryl Thomas University College London
- William Thompson University of California, Irvine
- Paul Troop University College London; The Open University
- Torben Tvedebrink Aalborg Universitet; Københavns Universitet (University of Copenhagen)
- Bart Verheij University of Groningen
- Gabriel Vivó-Truyols Universiteit van Amsterdam
- Marion Vorms Birkbeck, University of London; Université Paris 1
- Bruce Weir University of Washington
- Patricia Wiltshire University of Aberdeen
- Barbaros Yet None / Other
- Sandy Zabell Northwestern University
- Eyal Zamir Hebrew University of Jerusalem
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