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Seminars (IDPW06)

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Event When Speaker Title Presentation Material
IDPW06 10th September 2020
09:15 to 09:30
Welcome from David Abrahams (INI Director)
IDPW06 10th September 2020
09:25 to 11:30
Theme 1: The Emergence of New Diseases Chair: Deirdre Hollingsworth (Big Data Institute)
IDPW06 10th September 2020
09:30 to 10:15
Eddie Holmes Spotting the next pandemic: prospecting or preparedness?
Zoonotic diseases have long been a major burden on human societies and are expected to increase in frequency and impact as we interact more with the animal world and as the global population increases in both size and productivity. Fortunately, new genomic tools, particularly metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS), provide a uniquely powerful means to rapidly reveal the microbial composition of any sample without bias, provide key information on the diversity, structure and evolution of the virosphere, help determine how microbes move across the human-animal interface and the drivers of disease emergence, and reveal the origins of specific epidemics. Herein, I demonstrate the utility of mNGS for pathogen discovery and understanding disease emergence on clinically actionable time-scales. In doing so, I will demonstrate how these genomic tools can form a key component to new approaches to pandemic preparedness. As a case study will focus on the initial emergence of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) at the end of 2019. I will discuss the most likely theories for its origin and emergence, and consider why coronaviruses seem particularly able to jump species boundaries and emerge in new hosts. I will conclude by outlining the ways in which we can potentially prevent pandemics like that of COVID-19 ever happening again.




IDPW06 10th September 2020
10:15 to 11:00
Mark Woolhouse What will cause the next pandemic?
IDPW06 10th September 2020
11:00 to 11:30
Discussion
IDPW06 10th September 2020
14:55 to 17:00
Theme 1: The Emergence of New Diseases Chair: Christl Donelly (University of Oxford, Imperial College London)
IDPW06 10th September 2020
15:00 to 15:45
Andrew Dobson Spotting the next pandemic: prospecting or preparedness?
Coivd-19’s arrival in the human population was inevitable.  There is a huge diversity of viral pathogens circulating in bats and other small mammals.  Three groups of people are exposed to them through their livelihoods: traders in the wildlife trade, the miners and loggers destroying tropical forests and those working in intensive agriculture.   The initial dynamics of novel virus in these three groups of people and their families determine whether novel viruses will spread into urban areas and from there to the rest of the world. This talk will fall into three sections: (1) Initially I’ll discuss ways to estimate the diversity of viruses with zoonotic potential and how this determines the risk they will spread from the initial crossover hosts into the rest of the human population.  (2) I’ll then briefly discuss some earlier models for how forest destruction changes the risk of transmission of viruses from forest species to those converting the forest or those living in the newly converted agricultural matrix.  (3) In the final section, I’ll develop some economic approaches that compare the cost of modifying the activities that increase risk of viral emergence with the current estimated cost of the Covid19 pandemic.




IDPW06 10th September 2020
15:45 to 16:30
Discussion
IDPW06 11th September 2020
14:25 to 16:45
Theme 2: Tackling New Diseases - Chair Valerie Isham(UCL)
IDPW06 11th September 2020
14:30 to 15:15
Salim S. Abdool Karim Intervention choices, what are the issues
IDPW06 11th September 2020
15:15 to 15:45
Ted Cohen Controlling epidemics of respiratory diseases: lessons from tuberculosis
IDPW06 11th September 2020
15:45 to 16:15
C. Jessica Metcalf Challenges in modelling emerging new diseases
IDPW06 11th September 2020
16:15 to 16:45
Discussion
IDPW06 14th September 2020
09:25 to 11:30
Theme 2: Tackling New Diseases Chair: Denis Mollison (Herriot-Watt University)
IDPW06 14th September 2020
09:30 to 10:15
Michael Baker The elimination strategy for responding to pandemics: the New Zealand Experience
IDPW06 14th September 2020
10:15 to 11:00
Brendan Murphy Experience in Ireland
IDPW06 14th September 2020
11:00 to 11:30
Discussion
IDPW06 18th September 2020
15:25 to 17:30
Theme 3: The Wider Context - Chair - Jess Metcalf
IDPW06 18th September 2020
15:30 to 16:15
Christopher Dye Unlikely disasters: pandemics, prevention and public health
IDPW06 18th September 2020
16:15 to 17:00
Jamie Lloyd-Smith Factors contributing to transmissibility
IDPW06 18th September 2020
17:00 to 17:30
Discussion
IDPW06 21st September 2020
13:55 to 16:00
Theme 3: The Wider Context Chair - Andy Dobson (Princeton University)
IDPW06 21st September 2020
14:00 to 14:45
Deirdre Hollingsworth Neglected tropical diseases
IDPW06 21st September 2020
14:45 to 15:30
Anna Vassall Interactions between health and economic impact in pandemics: from data to decisions
IDPW06 21st September 2020
15:30 to 16:00
Discussion
IDPW06 22nd September 2020
13:55 to 16:00
Theme 3: The Wider Context Chair: Caroline Trotter(University of Cambridge)
IDPW06 22nd September 2020
14:00 to 14:45
Shaun Hargreaves Heap Valuing health
IDPW06 22nd September 2020
14:45 to 15:30
Tim Besley Inequality, real-time economics and his thoughts about learning from this pandemic for future pandemics
IDPW06 22nd September 2020
15:30 to 16:00
Discussion
IDPW06 23rd September 2020
13:55 to 16:00
Theme 3: The Wider Context Chair: Nigel Shadbolt (University of Oxford)
IDPW06 23rd September 2020
14:00 to 14:45
Charlotte Watts How does science interface with policy
IDPW06 23rd September 2020
14:45 to 16:00
Bernard Silverman, Frank Kelly Panel Discussion
IDPW06 24th September 2020
09:55 to 12:30
Theme 3: The Wider Context Chair Denis Mollison (Heriot-Watt University)
IDPW06 24th September 2020
10:00 to 11:00
David Redding Zoonotic disease spill-over in the context of global change
IDPW06 24th September 2020
11:00 to 12:00
Tim Lenton Inequality, real-time economics and future pandemics
IDPW06 24th September 2020
12:00 to 12:30
Discussion
IDPW06 25th September 2020
09:55 to 11:30
Theme 3: The Wider Context - Chair - Chris Dye
IDPW06 25th September 2020
10:00 to 11:00
Martin Rees Existential Risk
Three  trends enhance the probability of global catastrophes ,    First, the rising global population, more demanding of energy and resources, leads to novel anthropogenic pressures on the biosphere -- climate change, loss of biodiversity, etc .    Second, the greater interconnectedness of our civilisation allows pandemics to rapidly cascade globally, and enhances our vulnerability to breakdown in supply chains, financial networks, etc .    Third, novel technologies -- bio, cyber and AI -- empower small groups with the ability (via error or terror) to cause massive (even global) disruption. Coping with this threat presents a challenge to governance: it will become ever harder to sustain the three goals of offering all citizens privacy, security and freedom.




IDPW06 25th September 2020
11:00 to 11:30
Discussion Introduced by Kevin McConway (Open University)
University of Cambridge Research Councils UK
    Clay Mathematics Institute London Mathematical Society NM Rothschild and Sons