Future pandemics
Thursday 10th September 2020 to Friday 25th September 2020
09:15 to 09:30 | Welcome from David Abrahams (INI Director) | INI 1 | |
09:25 to 11:30 | Theme 1: The Emergence of New Diseases Chair: Deirdre Hollingsworth (Big Data Institute) | INI 1 | |
09:30 to 10:15 |
Eddie Holmes (University of Sydney) Spotting the next pandemic: prospecting or preparedness?
Zoonotic
diseases have long been a major burden on human societies and are expected to
increase in frequency and impact as we interact more with the animal world and as
the global population increases in both size and productivity. Fortunately, new
genomic tools, particularly metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS), provide a uniquely powerful means to rapidly reveal
the microbial composition of
any sample without bias, provide key information on the diversity, structure and evolution of the
virosphere, help determine
how microbes move across the human-animal interface and the drivers of disease
emergence, and reveal the origins of specific epidemics. Herein,
I demonstrate
the utility of mNGS for pathogen discovery and understanding disease emergence on
clinically actionable time-scales. In doing so,
I will demonstrate how these genomic tools can form a key component to new
approaches to pandemic preparedness. As
a case study will focus on the initial emergence of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) at
the end of 2019. I
will discuss the most likely theories for its origin and emergence, and
consider why coronaviruses seem particularly able to jump species boundaries
and emerge in new hosts. I will conclude by outlining the ways in which we can
potentially prevent pandemics like that of COVID-19 ever happening again. |
INI 1 |
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10:15 to 11:00 |
Mark Woolhouse (University of Edinburgh) What will cause the next pandemic? |
INI 1 |
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11:00 to 11:30 | Discussion | INI 1 | |
11:30 to 15:00 | Break | ||
14:55 to 17:00 | Theme 1: The Emergence of New Diseases Chair: Christl Donelly (University of Oxford, Imperial College London) | INI 1 | |
15:00 to 15:45 |
Andrew Dobson (Princeton University); (Santa Fe Institute) Spotting the next pandemic: prospecting or preparedness?
Coivd-19’s arrival in the human population was inevitable. There is a huge diversity of viral pathogens circulating in bats and other small mammals. Three groups of people are exposed to them through their livelihoods: traders in the wildlife trade, the miners and loggers destroying tropical forests and those working in intensive agriculture. The initial dynamics of novel virus in these three groups of people and their families determine whether novel viruses will spread into urban areas and from there to the rest of the world. This talk will fall into three sections: (1) Initially I’ll discuss ways to estimate the diversity of viruses with zoonotic potential and how this determines the risk they will spread from the initial crossover hosts into the rest of the human population. (2) I’ll then briefly discuss some earlier models for how forest destruction changes the risk of transmission of viruses from forest species to those converting the forest or those living in the newly converted agricultural matrix. (3) In the final section, I’ll develop some economic approaches that compare the cost of modifying the activities that increase risk of viral emergence with the current estimated cost of the Covid19 pandemic. |
INI 1 |
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15:45 to 16:30 | Discussion | INI 1 |
14:25 to 16:45 | Theme 2: Tackling New Diseases - Chair Valerie Isham(UCL) | INI 1 | |
14:30 to 15:15 |
Salim S. Abdool Karim (CAPRISA - Centre for aids programme of research in South Africa); (Columbia University) Intervention choices, what are the issues |
INI 1 |
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15:15 to 15:45 |
Ted Cohen (Yale University) Controlling epidemics of respiratory diseases: lessons from tuberculosis |
INI 1 |
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15:45 to 16:15 |
C. Jessica Metcalf (Princeton University) Challenges in modelling emerging new diseases |
INI 1 |
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16:15 to 16:45 | Discussion | INI 1 |
09:25 to 11:30 | Theme 2: Tackling New Diseases Chair: Denis Mollison (Herriot-Watt University) | INI 1 | |
09:30 to 10:15 |
Michael Baker (University of Otago) The elimination strategy for responding to pandemics: the New Zealand Experience |
INI 1 |
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10:15 to 11:00 |
Brendan Murphy (University College Dublin) Experience in Ireland |
INI 1 |
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11:00 to 11:30 | Discussion | INI 1 |
15:25 to 17:30 | Theme 3: The Wider Context - Chair - Jess Metcalf | INI 1 | |
15:30 to 16:15 |
Christopher Dye (University of Oxford); (University of Oxford) Unlikely disasters: pandemics, prevention and public health |
INI 1 |
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16:15 to 17:00 |
Jamie Lloyd-Smith (University of California, Los Angeles) Factors contributing to transmissibility |
INI 1 |
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17:00 to 17:30 | Discussion | INI 1 |
13:55 to 16:00 | Theme 3: The Wider Context Chair - Andy Dobson (Princeton University) | INI 1 | |
14:00 to 14:45 |
Deirdre Hollingsworth (University of Oxford) Neglected tropical diseases |
INI 1 |
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14:45 to 15:30 |
Anna Vassall (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) Interactions between health and economic impact in pandemics: from data to decisions |
INI 1 |
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15:30 to 16:00 | Discussion | INI 1 |
13:55 to 16:00 | Theme 3: The Wider Context Chair: Caroline Trotter(University of Cambridge) | INI 1 | |
14:00 to 14:45 |
Shaun Hargreaves Heap (King's College London) Valuing health |
INI 1 |
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14:45 to 15:30 |
Tim Besley (London School of Economics) Inequality, real-time economics and his thoughts about learning from this pandemic for future pandemics |
INI 1 |
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15:30 to 16:00 | Discussion | INI 1 |
13:55 to 16:00 | Theme 3: The Wider Context Chair: Nigel Shadbolt (University of Oxford) | INI 1 | |
14:00 to 14:45 |
Charlotte Watts (Department for International Development) How does science interface with policy |
INI 1 |
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14:45 to 16:00 |
Bernard Silverman (University of Oxford); Frank Kelly (University of Cambridge) Panel Discussion |
INI 1 |
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09:55 to 12:30 | Theme 3: The Wider Context Chair Denis Mollison (Heriot-Watt University) | INI 1 | |
10:00 to 11:00 |
David Redding (Zoological Society of London) Zoonotic disease spill-over in the context of global change |
INI 1 |
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11:00 to 12:00 |
Tim Lenton (University of Exeter) Inequality, real-time economics and future pandemics |
INI 1 |
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12:00 to 12:30 | Discussion | INI 1 |
09:55 to 11:30 | Theme 3: The Wider Context - Chair - Chris Dye | INI 1 | |
10:00 to 11:00 |
Martin Rees (University of Cambridge) Existential Risk
Three trends enhance the probability of global catastrophes , First, the rising global population, more demanding of energy and resources, leads to novel anthropogenic pressures on the biosphere -- climate change, loss of biodiversity, etc . Second, the greater interconnectedness of our civilisation allows pandemics to rapidly cascade globally, and enhances our vulnerability to breakdown in supply chains, financial networks, etc . Third, novel technologies -- bio, cyber and AI -- empower small groups with the ability (via error or terror) to cause massive (even global) disruption. Coping with this threat presents a challenge to governance: it will become ever harder to sustain the three goals of offering all citizens privacy, security and freedom. |
INI 1 |
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11:00 to 11:30 | Discussion Introduced by Kevin McConway (Open University) | INI 1 |
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