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Design and analysis of experiments applied to critical infrastructure simulation

Moore, LM (Los Alamos National Laboratory)
Thursday 14 August 2008, 17:00-17:30

Seminar Room 1, Newton Institute


Critical infrastructures are a complex "system of systems" and interdependent infrastructure simulation models are useful to assess consequences of disruptions initiated in any infrastructure. A risk-informed decision support tool using systems dynamics methods has been developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to provide an efficient running simulation tool to gain insight for making critical infrastructure protection related decisions in the presence of uncertainty. Modeling of consequences of an infectious disease outbreak provides a case study and opportunity to demonstrate exploratory statistical experiment planning and analysis capability. In addition to modeling consequences of an incident, alternative mitigation strategies can be implemented and consequences under these alternatives compared. Statistical analyses include screening, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in addition to designing experiments which are sets of simulation runs for comparing relative consequences from implementation of different mitigation strategies.




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