Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

Epidemic Models

1 January - 30 June 1993

Organisers: Denis Mollison (Heriot-Watt), Valerie Isham (UCL, London), Bryan Grenfell (Cambridge)

Programme theme

3-9th January : NATO ARW on Epidemic Models This workshop reviewed recent developments across the field of epidemic modelling, with an emphasis on identifying key research problems, especially those suitable for interdisciplinary ooperation. A book, based on the workshop, is to be published later in the year. [Details from: Denis Mollison.]

Seminars in February will include:

Wed 3rd February 14.30: Lisa Sattenspiel Population mobility and the spread of infectious disease on the island of Dominica, West Indies.
Wed 10th Februar:y

14.30 - Hans Heesterbeek & An algorithm to calculate for discrete-time epidemic models.
15.00 - Mart de Jong in the real world: Aujeszky's Disease Virus in pigs.
16.00 - Mick Roberts & The population dynamics of nematode infections of sheep.

Wed 17th February 16.00: Peter Diggle - Point process methods in environmental epidemiology.

There is also a series of `Lectures for Graduates' on Epidemic Models on Thursdays, 2-4pm, until 11th March, details available on request.

Workshops, 14th March - 2nd April

14-20th March: workshop on Population biology of infectious diseases of wildlife. An intensive meeting, based on the Dahlem conference format. Aimed at synthesizing theoretical and empirical approaches to wildlife disease dynamics. Details from: Bryan Grenfell.
22-26th March: workshop on Methodology of epidemic modelling. A week of informal seminars and research discussions devoted to basic modelling and problems relevant to applications to both wildlife and human diseases. Details from: Denis Mollison.
28th March - 2nd April: workshop on Models for infectious human diseases. A research workshop, to advance the study of human diseases, by encouraging interaction between the development of theoretical results, the use of relevant expert knowledge and the analysis of data. There will be main invited papers, shorter contributed papers and the opportunity for substantial discussion (both invited and contributed). Topics will include: A comparison of transmissible and non-transmissible diseases with long development times; the dynamics of immunity (development of disease within individuals); population heterogeneity (mixing); the consequences of treatment interventions; prediction, policy and control.

Participants

Michael Altmann (Minnesota), Niels Becker (La Trobe), Lynne Billard (Athens, USA), Mart de Jong (CDI), Klaus Dietz (Tubingen), Andy Dobson (Princeton), Bryan Grenfell (Cambridge), Chris Dye (UCL), Hans Heesterbeek (Amsterdam), Steve Ellner (N Carolina), Valerie Isham (UCL), Ira Longini (Emory), Anders Martin-Lof (Stockholm), Gunther Hasibeder (Vienna), Denis Mollison (Heriot-Watt), Herb Hethcote (Iowa), Martina Morris (Columbia, USA), Frank Ball (Nottingham), Ingemar Naasell (Stockholm), John Jacquez (Michigan), Mick Roberts (AgRes, Wallaceville), Peter Donnelly (QMW), Lisa Sattenspiel (Missouri), Doug Nychka (N Carolina), Gary Smith (Pennsylvania).

Others likely to visit, mostly for shorter periods, include:

R Anderson (Imperial), A Barbour (Zurich), S Blythe (Strathclyde), A Cairns (Heriot-Watt), O Diekmann (Amsterdam), P Diggle (Lancaster), R Durrett (Cornell), D Griffeath (Madison), K Hadeler (Tubingen), C Lefevre (Brussels), S Levin (Cornell), R May (Oxford), E Massad, H Metz (Leiden), R Azevedo Neto C Struchiner, S Richardson (INSERM Paris), G Scalia-Tomba (Rome).

Invited speakers include

Z Agur, RM Anderson, K Day, K Dietz, A Fulford, S Gore, D Habbema, H Hethcote, AM Johnson, I Longini, M Morris, M Nowak, J Peto, T Peto, P Solomon, and JMG Taylor.