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Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions

Lloyd, A (North Carolina State University)
Wednesday 21 August 2013, 11:00-11:30

Seminar Room 1, Newton Institute


Quantifying uncertainty in a model's predictions is crucial if we are to have faith in those predictions. Uncertainties arise from a number of sources, including uncertainty in the values of the model's parameters (parametric uncertainty), uncertainty in the structure of the model and stochasticity in the model's dynamics. In this talk I will discuss and apply a number of uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques to simple disease transmission models.


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