Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences

Managing Uncertainty

23 Jul--10 Aug 2001

Organisers: Professor P Embrechts (Zurich), Dr WJ Fitzgerald (Cambridge), Dr DJ Goodman (British Antartic Survey), Professor RL Smith (North Carolina)




MANAGING UNCERTAINTY

A DISCUSSION

DATE:

Thursday,2nd August, 2001

TIME:

17:30 to 19:15

CHAIRMAN:

The Rt Hon the Lord Jenkin of Roding

SPEAKERS:

Professor Myron Scholes, Oak Hill Platinum Partners and Stanford University

Sir Ian Prosser, Chairman, Bass plc

Lord Browne of Madingley FREng, Chief Executive, BP

DISCUSSION TOPICS:

Mathematics has a lot to offer organisations in improving decision making but can Board members relate to the output of analysis? Improved tools for forecasting low probability, high severity events have been developed but can they be of use in the Board room? The three speakers will first present a view of how uncertainty is managed by organisations from the perspective of a theoretician, from the view of a non-executive Board member and from a Chief Executive. Then there will be a general discussion chaired by the Rt Hon the Lord Jenkin of Roding about how mathematics and the real world meet together (or may not meet!) in the management of uncertainty. The meeting will close at 19:15.

PLACE

Meeting Room 2
Centre for Mathematical Sciences
Clarkson Road, Cambridge

New mathematical methods are being developed for estimating extreme values of distributions and for forecasting ahead from times series with non-stationary behaviour. These new methods are under debate at a three-week Programme at the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences on Managing Uncertainty. As a contribution to this programme there will a public discussion on how corporations manage uncertainty and the role mathematics can play in improving decision-making.

The Rt Hon the Lord Jenkin of Roding, the Chairman of the Foundation for Science and Technology, will chair the meeting.

This meeting has been jointly organised by the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences and the Foundation for Science and Technology.

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