An Isaac Newton Institute Workshop

Recent Advances in Monte Carlo Based Inference

Metropolis – Hastings simulation method with spline proposal kernel.

Authors: Grzegorz Krzykowski (Insitute of Mathematics, University of Gdansk), Wojciech Mackowiak (Insitute of Mathematics, University of Gdansk)

Abstract

B-splines as density functions of sum of random variables, that are independent and uniformly distributed, play key role in computer simulation.

In the presentation basic properties of B-spline base are described together with their consequences in generation process.

B-spline base, with unrestricted choice of knots, is used in proposal kernel construction in classical Metropolis – Hastings method. We present theorems on monitoring chains and assessing convergence, optimalise the way of choosing parameters by moment methods and easiness in implementation. Construction is similar to grid ­ based chains construction (see L. Tierney Ann. Statist. 22 1701-1762).

Incorporating B-spline density estimators into Metropolis – Hastings method we can easily obtain simulation prediction of data.

This methodology can be the default procedure in Metropolis – Hastings simulation area.