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Evaluating Peterborough's no cold calling initiative using space-time Bayesian hierarchical modelling

Date: 
Monday 26th September 2011 - 16:45 to 16:55
Venue: 
INI Seminar Room 1
Abstract: 
As part of a wider Neighbourhood Policing strategy, Cambridgeshire Constabulary in- stituted "No Cold Calling" (NCC) zones to reduce cold calling (unsolicited visits to sell products/services), which is often associated with rogue trading and distraction bur- glary. We evaluated the NCC-targeted areas chosen in 2005-6 and report whether they experienced a measurable impact on burglary rates in the period up to 2008. Time series data for burglary at the Census Output Area level is analysed using a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach, addressing issues often encountered in small area quan- titative policy evaluation. Results reveal a positive NCC impact on stabilising burglary rates in the targeted areas.
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University of Cambridge Research Councils UK
    Clay Mathematics Institute London Mathematical Society NM Rothschild and Sons