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On the Formulation of Deterministic Epidemic Models

Date: 
Thursday 22nd August 2013 - 09:00 to 09:30
Venue: 
INI Seminar Room 1
Session Title: 
Modelling & Analysis 2: Deterministic Methods
Abstract: 
All epidemic models are stochastic at the individual level. The adjective 'deterministic' just expresses that we focus on the limit of infinitely many individuals of all relevant categories. When we take a (caricatural) within-host model as the basis for a population level model, we obtain a structured model that can often be formulated in terms of delay equations (renewal equations, cf. Kermack-McKendrick 1927, and/or delay differential equations). The qualitative theory of such equations is in good shape, but there is an urgent need for numerical bifurcation tools.
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University of Cambridge Research Councils UK
    Clay Mathematics Institute London Mathematical Society NM Rothschild and Sons