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A new recurrences based technique for detecting robust extrema in long temperature records

Tuesday 29th October 2013 - 14:50 to 15:25
INI Seminar Room 1
Co-author: Sandro Vaienti (University of Marseille)

By using new techniques originally developed for the analysis of extreme values of dynamical systems, several long records of temperatures at different locations are analysed by showing that they have the same recurrence time statistics of a chaotic dynamical system perturbed with dynamical noise and by instrument errors. The technique provides a criterion to discriminate whether the recurrence of a certain temperature belongs to the natural climate variability or can be considered as a real extreme event with respect to a specific time scale fixed as parameter. The method gives a self-consistent estimation of the convergence.

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Presentation Material: 
University of Cambridge Research Councils UK
    Clay Mathematics Institute London Mathematical Society NM Rothschild and Sons