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The problem of false positives, some lessons from the bullet lead story, and the new U.S. Department of Justice guidance for expert testimony

Presented by: 
Michael Finkelstein Columbia University
Date: 
Tuesday 30th August 2016 - 11:30 to 12:00
Venue: 
INI Seminar Room 1
Abstract: 
False positive probability is a key element in a statistical evaluation of forensic evidence.  The Committee on Scientific Assessment of Bullet Lead Elemental Composition Comparison of the U.S. National Research Council struggled with the problem of its estimation and its conclusion is instructive.  It is an interesting fact that the recently issued guidance for expert testimony proposed by the U.S. Department of Justice points in a similar direction.  
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University of Cambridge Research Councils UK
    Clay Mathematics Institute London Mathematical Society NM Rothschild and Sons