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Bayes Nets for the evaluation of testimony

Presented by: 
Paolo Garbolino
Monday 26th September 2016 - 14:15 to 15:00
INI Seminar Room 1
David Schum gave in his book The Evidential Foundations of Probabilistic Reasoning an analysis of testimony that can be formalized by a Bayes net whose nodes represent the hypothesis of interest, the basic attributes of the credibility of human witnesses (observational accuracy, objectivity and veracity) and the ancillary evidence bearing upon those attributes. It will be shown as, given some plausible hypotheses, the net can provide a new answer to a classical riddle in the literature about evidential probabilistic reasoning, the so-called “blue bus problem”.
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University of Cambridge Research Councils UK
    Clay Mathematics Institute London Mathematical Society NM Rothschild and Sons