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Three Normative Frameworks for Evidential Reasoning and their Connections: Arguments, Scenarios and Probabilities

Presented by: 
Bart Verheij
Wednesday 28th September 2016 - 09:30 to 10:15
INI Seminar Room 1
Artificial intelligence research on reasoning with criminal evidence in terms of arguments, hypothetical scenarios, and probabilities showed that Bayesian networks can be used for modeling arguments and structured hypotheses. Also well-known issues with Bayesian networks were encountered: More numbers are needed than are available, and there is a risk of misinterpretation of the graph underlying the Bayesian network, for instance as a causal model. The formalism presented models arguments and scenarios in terms of models that have a probabilistic interpretation, but do not represent a full distribution over the variables.
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University of Cambridge Research Councils UK
    Clay Mathematics Institute London Mathematical Society NM Rothschild and Sons