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Causal networks in evidential reasoning

Presented by: 
David Lagnado
Thursday 29th September 2016 - 11:30 to 12:15
INI Seminar Room 1
How do people reason in the face of complex and contradictory evidence? Focusing on investigative and legal contexts, we present an idiom-based approach to evidential reasoning, in which people combine and reuse causal schemas to capture large bodies of interrelated evidence and hypotheses. We examine both the normative and descriptive status of this framework, illustrating with real legal cases and empirical studies. We also argue that it is qualitative causal reasoning, rather than fully Bayesian computation, that lies at the heart of human evidential reasoning. 
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University of Cambridge Research Councils UK
    Clay Mathematics Institute London Mathematical Society NM Rothschild and Sons