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Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and Communication for Chemical and Biological Hazard Response

Presented by: 
Ronni Bowman Defence Science and Technology Laboratory
Thursday 11th January 2018 - 14:30 to 15:30
INI Seminar Room 1
Effectively calculating and communicating uncertainty is crucial for effective risk management, but is difficult to achieve in practice.  This is compounded when the application area is highly complex with multiple model fidelities, and “accurate” UQ is impossible. 

Uncertainty communication must be clear to experts and non-experts alike and must account for a lack of understanding of the definitions of both "risk" and "uncertainty".  By drawing on examples from the wide variety of defence applications that require an understanding and communication of uncertainty and outlining the reason that uncertainty calculation and communication is crucial to decision making, this talk will explore the current state of the art and outline the many open challenges remaining.

The talk will then focus on a particular challenge area and work through the complex information chain with associated timelines to provide an insight into the response times required to support real world scenarios. 

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University of Cambridge Research Councils UK
    Clay Mathematics Institute London Mathematical Society NM Rothschild and Sons