CLP
11 August 2010 to 22 December 2010
Our best estimates of future climate are based on the use of complex computer models that do not explicitly resolve the wide variety of spatio-temporal scales making up Earth's climate system. The non-linearity of the governing physical processes allows energy transfer between different scales, and many aspects of this complex behaviour can be represented by stochastic models. However, the theoretical basis for so doing is far from complete. Many uncertainties remain in predictions derived from climate models, yet governments are increasingly reliant on model predictions to inform mitigation and adaptation strategies. An overarching aim of climate scientists is to reduce the uncertainty in climate predictions and produce credible assessments of model accuracy. This programme focuses on two key themes that both require the close collaboration of mathematicians, statisticians and climate scientists in order to improve climate models and the interpretation of their output.
The first theme is the development of improved stochastic sub-grid-scale physics models, which have the potential to improve the variability of ensemble climate simulations. Progress can be made by establishing frameworks for relating models of different resolutions and for combining stochastic Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) with global climate models (GCMs). Stochastic approaches to climate modelling will benefit from improving the connection between deterministic models and statistical tools such as downscaling, emulation, reified modelling and dimensional reduction.
The second aspect of the programme concerns the use of statistical techniques to create a theoretically sound basis for probabilistic climate prediction. The vast amount of data produced by climate models needs synthesis in order to provide the predictions, and credible error estimates, required by policy makers. This theme will provide an environment in which to seek quantitative answers to fundamental questions of interpreting probabilistic output, and the reliability of climate predictions at varying space and time scales. It will also consider what measurements can be used to assess the quality of climate model predictions.
This programme will bring together world-leading researchers in climate modelling, mathematics and statistics in order to make progress in solving some of the major issues facing climate prediction.
Click here to download the programme's final scientific report
Title | Year | Programme | |
---|---|---|---|
A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcingsAuthors: S Sarno, V Lucarini |
2010 | CLP | 21 October 2016 |
Synchronisation on astronomical forcingAuthors: B De Saedeleer, Guillaume Lenoir, D Garcia-alvarez, Michel Crucifix |
2010 | CLP | 21 October 2016 |
Will climate change mathematics (?)Authors: Chris Jones |
2010 | CLP | 21 October 2016 |
Information theory and dynamical system predictabilityAuthors: Richard Kleeman |
2010 | CLP | 21 October 2016 |
Thermodynamical properties of planetary fluid envelopesAuthors: K Fraedrich, Francesco Ragone, V Lucarini |
2010 | CLP | 21 October 2016 |
An extreme non-linear example of the use of emulators with simulators using the Stommel modelAuthors: P Challenor, Y Andrianakis, Robin Tokmakian |
2010 | CLP | 21 October 2016 |
Predictability error growth of turbulent flowsAuthors: CE Leith, Ye Zhou |
2010 | CLP | 21 October 2016 |
23 August 2010 to 27 August 2010
20 September 2010 to 23 September 2010
24 November 2010 to 24 November 2010
6 December 2010 to 10 December 2010
Friday 13th August 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
14:00 to 15:00 |
Huei-Ping Huang Arizona State University |
Room 1 | |
Wednesday 18th August 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
14:00 to 15:00 |
Hugo Lambert University of Exeter |
Room 1 | |
Thursday 19th August 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
14:00 to 15:00 |
John Haslett Trinity College Dublin |
Room 1 | |
Friday 20th August 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Julia Hargreaves Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) |
Room 1 | |
Thursday 2nd September 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 | Room 1 | |
|
14:00 to 15:00 |
Vincent Garreta Trinity College Dublin |
Room 1 | |
Friday 3rd September 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Lev Tarasov Memorial University of Newfoundland |
Room 1 | |
14:00 to 15:00 |
Neil Edwards The Open University |
Room 1 | |
Monday 6th September 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
14:00 to 15:00 | Room 2 |
Tuesday 7th September 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Jonathan Rougier University of Bristol |
Room 2 |
Wednesday 8th September 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
11:00 to 12:00 |
A statistical mechanical apporach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcing |
Room 2 |
Thursday 9th September 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
14:00 to 15:00 |
Richard Wilkinson University of Nottingham |
Room 2 |
Wednesday 15th September 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Jim Hall Newcastle University |
Room 2 | |
11:30 to 12:30 |
Caitlin Buck University of Sheffield |
Room 2 | |
14:00 to 15:00 | Room 2 |
Thursday 16th September 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
11:00 to 12:00 |
Joe Tribbia National Center for Atmospheric Research |
Room 2 | |
14:00 to 15:00 |
Stephen Belcher University of Reading |
Room 2 | |
Friday 17th September 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
11:00 to 12:00 |
Development of wavelet methodology for weather Data Assimilation |
Room 2 | |
Thursday 30th September 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
14:00 to 15:00 |
Richard Katz University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) |
Room 1 | |
Wednesday 6th October 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Robin Tokmakian Naval Postgraduate School |
Room 1 | |
Tuesday 12th October 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Georg Gottwald University of Sydney |
Room 1 | |
Wednesday 13th October 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Using simple models and rigorous mathematics to improve operational atmosphere and ocean modelling |
Room 1 | |
Thursday 14th October 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Georg Gottwald University of Sydney |
Room 1 | |
14:00 to 15:00 |
Ye Zhou Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory |
Room 1 | |
Friday 15th October 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Predictability of the 2nd kind: numerical discretisations and their climatic response |
Room 1 | |
Monday 18th October 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Sebastian Reich Universität Potsdam |
Room 1 | |
12:00 to 13:00 |
Peter Leonard Read University of Oxford |
Room 1 | |
Tuesday 19th October 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Bill Dewar Florida State University |
Room 1 | |
11:15 to 12:15 | Room 1 |
Wednesday 20th October 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Cécile Penland National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration |
Room 1 | |
12:00 to 13:00 |
Frank Kwasniok University of Exeter |
Room 1 | |
14:00 to 15:00 |
Seoleun Shin Universität Potsdam |
Room 1 |
Thursday 21st October 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Julian Hunt University College London |
Room 1 | |
12:00 to 13:00 |
Peter Ashwin University of Exeter |
Room 1 | |
Monday 25th October 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Michael Davey University College London |
Room 1 | |
Tuesday 26th October 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 | Room 2 | ||
11:00 to 15:00 | Room 2 |
Wednesday 27th October 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Mike Thompson University of Cambridge |
Room 1 | |
Tuesday 9th November 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
John Thuburn University of Exeter |
Room 1 |
Friday 12th November 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 | Room 1 |
Tuesday 16th November 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Bryson Bates CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CMAR) |
Room 1 | |
Wednesday 17th November 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
14:00 to 15:00 |
Arthur Dempster Harvard University |
Admin Office [UNAVAILABLE] |
Friday 19th November 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
11:00 to 16:00 | Discussion Room |
Monday 22nd November 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
14:00 to 15:00 |
Robert Niven University of New South Wales |
Room 2 |
Tuesday 23rd November 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Andrew Parnell University College Dublin |
Room 1 | |
Wednesday 24th November 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
14:05 to 14:30 | Admin Office [UNAVAILABLE] | |
|
14:30 to 16:00 |
Panel discussion - The scientific uncertainties and their implications |
Admin Office [UNAVAILABLE] | |
16:30 to 18:00 | Admin Office [UNAVAILABLE] | |
Friday 26th November 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Robert Niven University of New South Wales |
Room 1 | |
Thursday 2nd December 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
14:00 to 15:00 | Room 1 |
Tuesday 14th December 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Vincent Garreta Trinity College Dublin |
Room 2 |
Wednesday 15th December 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
14:00 to 15:00 |
Mainul Haque University of Kalyani |
Room 2 |
Tuesday 21st December 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Tilmann Gneiting Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg |
Room 1 | |
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