Stochastic methods in climate modelling

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Workshop theme

This is the opening workshop within the programme, Mathematical and Statistical Approaches to Climate Modelling and Prediction. The aim of this conference-style workshop is to bring together expert researchers from the fields of mathematics, statistics and climate science to pose and tackle the major issues confronting climate prediction. The conference will begin by setting out the challenges for improving our understanding and modelling of Earth's climate. Two days of the workshop will be dedicated to fundamental issues of complexity and predictability of Earth's climate as a non-linear system. We will discuss the paradox of spatial (and therefore process) resolution versus replication, and the role of diverse classes of climate model. Day four will focus on the principle of maximum entropy production (MEP) as applied to climate. The final day will concentrate on the toolkit of stochastic physical models as components of ocean-atmosphere climate models. As well improving the representation of physical processes, these sub-grid models can account for structural (epistemological) uncertainty in traditional climate models. The workshop has been organised to encourage maximum participation and discussion between the talks, and thus to kick-start the exchange of ideas for the remaining programme.

Timetable

Monday 23rd August 2010
09:00 to 09:50	Registration	No Room Required
09:50 to 10:00	Welcome by Dr Ben Mestel (INI Deputy Director)	Room 1
10:00 to 11:00	A very grand challenge for the science of climate prediction	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:30	Chris Jones University of Warwick Is data assimilation relevant to climate research?	Room 1
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch at Wolfson Court	No Room Required
14:00 to 15:00	Tim Lenton University of East Anglia Indentification and early warning of climate tipping points	Room 1
15:00 to 15:30	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
15:30 to 16:30	Bill Dewar Florida State University Maximum entropy production and climate modelling: an overview of theory and applications	Room 1
16:45 to 17:45	Glenn Shutts Met Office Current use of stochastic methods in operational NWP/climate forecasting: are they physically justifiable	Room 1
17:45 to 18:15	Welcome Wine Reception	No Room Required
18:15 to 19:00	Dinner at Churchill College	No Room Required

Tuesday 24th August 2010
10:00 to 11:00	Michel Crucifix Université Catholique de Louvain Stochastic methods for understanding palaeoclimates	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:30	Christian Franzke British Antarctic Survey Systematic Strategies for Stochastic Climate Modeling	Room 1
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch at Wolfson Court	No Room Required
14:00 to 15:00	Grant Branstator National Center for Atmospheric Research Properties of the atmospheric response to tropical heating estimated from the fluctuation dissipation theorem	Room 1
15:00 to 15:30	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
15:30 to 16:30	Richard Kleeman Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences The spectra of a general class of stochastic climate models	Room 1
16:45 to 17:45	Discussion session - What are the key dynamical systems questions to address in the programme	Room 1
18:15 to 19:00	Dinner at Churchill College	No Room Required

Wednesday 25th August 2010
10:00 to 11:00	Mike Thompson University of Cambridge Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:30	Sebastian Wieczorek University of Exeter Rate-dependent tipping points: the example of the compost-bomb instability	Room 1
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch at Wolfson Court	No Room Required
14:00 to 15:00	Mikhail Semenov Rothamsted Research Delivering local-scale climate scenarios for impact assessments	Room 1
15:00 to 15:30	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
15:30 to 16:30	Hans Künsch ETH Zürich Biases and uncertainty in multi-model climate projections	Room 1
16:45 to 17:45	Peter Cox University of Exeter Model resolution versus ensemble size: optimizing the trade-off for finite computing resources	Room 1
19:30 to 22:00	Conference Dinner at Jesus College	No Room Required

Thursday 26th August 2010
10:00 to 11:00	Axel Kleidon Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, Jena Life, hierarchy, and the thermodynamic machinery of planet Earth	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:30	Tim Jupp University of Exeter MEP and planetary climates: insights from a two-box climate model containing atmospheric dynamics	Room 1
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch at Wolfson Court	No Room Required
14:00 to 15:00	Jonathan Gregory University of Reading Climate entropy production based on AOGCM diagnostics	Room 1
15:00 to 15:30	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
15:30 to 17:00	Discussion session - What are the key MEP questions to address in this programme	Room 1
17:00 to 18:00	Poster Session	Discussion Room
18:15 to 19:00	Dinner at Churchill College	No Room Required

Friday 27th August 2010
10:00 to 11:00	Frank Kwasniok University of Exeter Empirical stochastic modelling in weather and climate science: applications from subgrid-scale parametrisation to analysis & modelling of palaeoclimatic records	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:30	Martin Steinheimer European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Stochstic representation of model uncertainties in ECMWF's forecasting system	Room 1
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch at Wolfson Court	No Room Required
14:00 to 15:00	Judith Berner National Center for Atmospheric Research Model uncertainty in weather and climate models: Stochastic and multi-physics representations	Room 1
15:00 to 15:30	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
15:30 to 16:30	Paul David Williams University of Reading The impacts of stochastic noise on climate models	Room 1
16:45 to 17:45	Bob Plant University of Reading Issues with convection. What is a useful framework beyond bulk models of large N, non-interacting, scale-separated, equilibrium systems	Room 1
18:15 to 19:00	Dinner at Churchill College	No Room Required

Speakers

Judith Berner National Center for Atmospheric Research
Grant Branstator National Center for Atmospheric Research
Peter Cox University of Exeter
Michel Crucifix Université Catholique de Louvain
Bill Dewar Florida State University
Christian Franzke British Antarctic Survey
Jonathan Gregory University of Reading
Chris Jones University of Warwick
Tim Jupp University of Exeter
Richard Kleeman Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences
Axel Kleidon Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, Jena
Frank Kwasniok University of Exeter
Hans Künsch ETH Zürich
Tim Lenton University of East Anglia
Bob Plant University of Reading
Mikhail Semenov Rothamsted Research
Glenn Shutts Met Office
Martin Steinheimer European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
Mike Thompson University of Cambridge
Sebastian Wieczorek University of Exeter
Paul David Williams University of Reading

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Stochastic methods in climate modelling

Workshop theme

Timetable

Speakers

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