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Uncertainty in Climate Prediction: Models, Methods and Decision Support


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6th December 2010 to 10th December 2010

Organisers: Dr R Chandler (UCL), Professor JM Huthnance (National Oceanographic Centre)

Workshop Theme

Climate models and prediction are strongly motivated by the need to support policy. For this we need to examine alternative scenarios and to quantify uncertainty through the different stages in formulating and running predictive models and analyzing their results for projections. Both aspects require a much larger number of model evaluations than is currently possible with state-of-the-art GCMs.

The Climate programme addresses approaches to these issues:

  • The statistical combination of scenarios, of model ensembles and of uncertain parameterisation values
  • The extent to which can we simplify/reduce climate models’ deterministic kernel while introducing stochastic elements that account for missing/unresolved parts (Reduced models are less accurate but can be more honest about their inaccuracies)

This Final Workshop aims to highlight and draw together progress and approaches that have emerged during the programme, and to articulate challenges for the future. We seek to bring together mathematicians, statisticians and climate scientists in sessions on:

  • Programme achievements (reflecting earlier workshops Stochastic Methods in Climate Modeling; Probablistic Climate Prediction)
  • Climate modelling and Statistical analysis
  • Leading participants will describe developments and issues that have emerged during the programme, related to the topics of Climate Modelling and Stochastic Methods therein, and Statistical Analysis and Probablistic Climate Predictions
  • Stakeholder interests and provision of policy-relevant information
  • Future challenges
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    Clay Mathematics Institute London Mathematical Society NM Rothschild and Sons