Uncertainty in climate prediction: models, methods and decision support
CLPW04
6 December 2010 to 10 December 2010
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Workshop theme
Climate models and prediction are strongly motivated by the need to support policy. For this we need to examine alternative scenarios and to quantify uncertainty through the different stages in formulating and running predictive models and analyzing their results for projections. Both aspects require a much larger number of model evaluations than is currently possible with state-of-the-art GCMs.
The Climate programme addresses approaches to these issues:
- The statistical combination of scenarios, of model ensembles and of uncertain parameterisation values
- The extent to which can we simplify/reduce climate models deterministic kernel while introducing stochastic elements that account for missing/unresolved parts (Reduced models are less accurate but can be more honest about their inaccuracies)
This Final Workshop aims to highlight and draw together progress and approaches that have emerged during the programme, and to articulate challenges for the future. We seek to bring together mathematicians, statisticians and climate scientists in sessions on:
- Programme achievements (reflecting earlier workshops Stochastic Methods in Climate Modeling; Probablistic Climate Prediction)
- Climate modelling and Statistical analysis
- Leading participants will describe developments and issues that have emerged during the programme, related to the topics of Climate Modelling and Stochastic Methods therein, and Statistical Analysis and Probablistic Climate Predictions
- Stakeholder interests and provision of policy-relevant information
- Future challenges
Timetable
| Monday 6th December 2010 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 to 12:30 | Room 1 | ||
| 12:30 to 13:30 | No Room Required | ||
| 13:30 to 13:55 | Room 1 | ||
| 13:55 to 14:00 | Room 1 | ||
| 14:00 to 15:00 |
Kevin Horsburgh National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool |
Room 1 | 
|
| 15:00 to 15:30 | No Room Required | ||
| 15:30 to 16:30 |
Matt Collins University of Exeter |
Room 1 |
|
| 16:30 to 17:00 | No Room Required | ||
| 17:00 to 18:00 |
After Climategate and Cancun; What Next for Climate Science? |
Room 1 |
|
| 18:00 to 18:45 | No Room Required | ||
| 18:45 to 19:30 | No Room Required | ||
| Tuesday 7th December 2010 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 to 10:30 |
Michel Crucifix Université Catholique de Louvain |
Room 1 |
|
| 10:30 to 11:00 | No Room Required | ||
| 11:00 to 11:40 |
Jonathan Rougier University of Bristol |
Room 1 |
|
| 11:40 to 12:30 | Room 1 |
|
|
| 12:30 to 13:30 | No Room Required | ||
| 14:00 to 15:00 |
David Stephenson University of Exeter |
Room 1 |
|
| 15:00 to 15:30 | No Room Required | ||
| 15:30 to 16:30 | Room 1 | ||
| 16:30 to 17:00 |
Richard Chandler University College London |
Room 1 |
|
| 17:00 to 17:30 | Room 1 |
|
|
| 18:45 to 19:30 | No Room Required | ||
| Wednesday 8th December 2010 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 to 10:30 |
Peter Cox University of Exeter |
Room 1 |
|
| 10:30 to 11:00 |
Sri Namachchivaya University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign |
Room 1 |
|
| 11:00 to 11:30 | No Room Required | ||
| 11:30 to 12:00 |
Rachel Warren University of East Anglia |
Room 1 |
|
| 12:00 to 12:30 |
Magne Aldrin Norwegian Computing Centre |
Room 1 |
|
| 12:30 to 13:30 | No Room Required | ||
| 13:30 to 15:00 | Room 1 | ||
| 15:00 to 15:30 | No Room Required | ||
| 15:30 to 16:10 |
Paul David Williams University of Reading |
Room 1 |
|
| 16:10 to 18:45 | Room 1 | ||
| 19:30 to 22:00 | No Room Required | ||
| Thursday 9th December 2010 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 to 10:00 |
Natali Hritonenko Prairie View A & M University |
Room 1 |
|
| 10:00 to 11:00 |
Roger Street University of Oxford |
Room 1 |
|
| 11:00 to 11:30 | No Room Required | ||
| 11:30 to 12:00 |
Neil Edwards The Open University |
Room 1 | |
| 12:00 to 12:30 |
Philip Thornton Københavns Universitet (University of Copenhagen) |
Room 1 |
|
| 12:30 to 13:30 | No Room Required | ||
| 13:30 to 15:00 | Room 1 | ||
| 15:00 to 15:30 | No Room Required | ||
| 15:30 to 16:10 | Room 1 |
|
|
| 16:10 to 17:00 |
Hermann Held Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) |
Room 1 |
|
| 17:00 to 18:00 | Room 1 | ||
| 18:45 to 19:30 | No Room Required | ||
| Friday 10th December 2010 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 to 09:15 | Room 1 | ||
| 09:15 to 12:00 | Room 2 | ||
| 09:15 to 10:30 |
Break-out sessions 1 and 2 (e.g. emerging findings; effective dissemination) |
Room 1 | |
| 10:30 to 11:00 | Room 1 | ||
| 11:00 to 11:30 | No Room Required | ||
| 11:30 to 12:10 | Room 1 | ||
| 12:10 to 12:30 | Room 1 | ||
| 12:30 to 13:30 | No Room Required | ||
| 18:45 to 19:30 | No Room Required | ||
Speakers
- Magne Aldrin Norwegian Computing Centre
- Richard Chandler University College London
- Matt Collins University of Exeter
- Peter Cox University of Exeter
- Michel Crucifix Université Catholique de Louvain
- Neil Edwards The Open University
- Hermann Held Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
- Kevin Horsburgh National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool
- Natali Hritonenko Prairie View A & M University
- Sri Namachchivaya University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
- Jonathan Rougier University of Bristol
- David Stephenson University of Exeter
- Roger Street University of Oxford
- Philip Thornton Københavns Universitet (University of Copenhagen)
- Rachel Warren University of East Anglia
- Paul David Williams University of Reading
Supported By
