The nature of questions arising in court that can be addressed via probability and statistical methods

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Workshop theme

Proper use of statistics and probabilistic reasoning has the potential to improve dramatically the efficiency, transparency and fairness of the criminal justice system and the accuracy of its verdicts, by enabling the relevance of evidence – especially forensic evidence - to be meaningfully evaluated and communicated. However, its actual use in practice is minimal, and indeed the most natural way to handle probabilistic evidence (Bayes) has generally been shunned. This workshop seeks to understand the scope, limitations, and barriers of using statistics and probability in court

Timetable

Tuesday 30th August 2016
09:00 to 09:40	Registration	No Room Required
09:40 to 09:50	Welcome from Christie Marr (INI Deputy Director)	Room 1
09:50 to 10:30	Jane Hutton University of Warwick Estimates of life expectancy for compensation after injury	Room 1
10:30 to 11:00	Angela Gallop Axiom International Ltd The Changing Face of Forensic Science	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:00	Michael Finkelstein Columbia University The problem of false positives, some lessons from the bullet lead story, and the new U.S. Department of Justice guidance for expert testimony	Room 1
12:00 to 12:30	Allan Jamieson Scottish Government Casework problems with the Likelihood Ratio	Room 1
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch @ Wolfson Court	No Room Required
13:30 to 14:00	David Bentley Doughty Street Chambers Probability and statistics – a criminal lawyer’s perspective.	Room 1
14:00 to 14:30	Cheryl Thomas University College London tba	Room 1
14:30 to 15:00	Bernard Robertson LexisNexis The nature of questions arising in court that can be addressed via probability and logic	Room 1
15:00 to 15:40	Joseph Gastwirth George Washington University Statistical Measures and Methods Used to Analyze the Representativeness of Jury Pools	Room 1
15:40 to 16:00	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
16:00 to 17:00	Discussion Panel	Room 1
17:00 to 18:00	Welcome Wine Reception	No Room Required

Wednesday 31st August 2016
09:30 to 10:20	William Thompson University of California, Irvine Lay Understanding (and Misunderstanding) of Quantitative Statements about the Weight of Forensic Evidence	Room 1
10:20 to 11:00	Kristy Martire University of New South Wales Exploring mock-juror evidence interpretation and belief updating within a probability framework	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:00	Tim Clayton LGC Limited tba	Room 1
12:00 to 12:30	Ruth Morgan University College London Forensic trace evidence – what are the questions we need to answer?	Room 1
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch @ Wolfson Court	No Room Required
13:30 to 14:00	Patricia Wiltshire University of Aberdeen Forensic Ecology: How do we get answers to questions? How do we present them to the court?	Room 1
14:00 to 14:30	Marieke Dubelaar Universiteit Leiden Law, statistics and psychology, do they match?	Room 1
14:30 to 15:00	Lonneke Stevens Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Struggling judges: do they need a probability help desk? A daily legal practice point of view	Room 1
15:00 to 15:30	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
15:30 to 17:00	Discussion Panel	Room 1

Thursday 1st September 2016
10:00 to 10:30	Frans Alkemade None / Other Bayes & the Blame Game: How to ease the mutually felt frustration between law professionals and scientists.	Room 1
10:30 to 11:00	Paul Roberts University of Nottingham All Talk and No Conversation? Methodological Preconditions of An Interdisciplinary Forensic Science	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:00	Bruce Weir University of Washington How should we interpret Y-chromosome evidence?	Room 1
12:00 to 12:30	Sheila Bird Medical Research Council; University of Strathclyde Statistical issues arising in the conduct of fatal accident inquiries	Room 1
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch @ Wolfson Court	No Room Required
13:30 to 14:00	Alex Biedermann Université de Lausanne Recent Pan-European advances in harmonising evaluative reporting in forensic science: scope, principles and pending challenges	Room 1
14:00 to 14:30	Ulrich Simmross Bundeskriminalamt (BKA), Forensic Science Institute Towards a better communication between theory and imperfect realities of professional practice - On barriers among stakeholders and possible ways out	Room 1
14:30 to 15:00	TBC	Room 1
15:00 to 15:30	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
15:30 to 17:00	Discussion Panel	Room 1
19:30 to 22:00	Formal Dinner at Trinity College	No Room Required

Friday 2nd September 2016
09:30 to 10:00	Alicia Carriquiry Iowa State University Forensic databases: size, completeness, usefulness	Room 1
10:00 to 10:30	Richard Lempert University of Michigan Courts and Statistics: Varieties of Statistical Challenges	Room 1
10:30 to 11:00	Anne Ruth mackor University of Groningen Novel Facts	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:00	Norman Fenton Queen Mary University of London The challenges of Bayes in the Law	Room 1
12:00 to 12:30	David Caruso University of Adelaide Capacity and Comprehension of Mathematical Reasoning by Counsel and Courts	Room 1
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch @ Wolfson Court	No Room Required
14:00 to 14:30	Colin Aitken University of Edinburgh Relevant populations and data	Room 1
14:30 to 15:00	Karen Kafadar University of Virginia Statistical Issues and Reliability of Eyewitness Identification	Room 1
15:00 to 15:30	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
15:30 to 16:30	David Spiegelhalter University of Cambridge Communicating likelihood ratios	Room 1

Probability and statistics in forensic science

The nature of questions arising in court that can be addressed via probability and statistical methods

Organisers

Norman Fenton Queen Mary University of London
Richard Gill Universiteit Leiden
David Lagnado University College London
Leila Schneps Institut de Mathématiques de Jussieu

Speakers

Colin Aitken University of Edinburgh
Frans Alkemade None / Other
David Bentley Doughty Street Chambers
Alex Biedermann Université de Lausanne
Sheila Bird Medical Research Council; University of Strathclyde
Alicia Carriquiry Iowa State University
David Caruso University of Adelaide
Tim Clayton LGC Limited
Marieke Dubelaar Universiteit Leiden
Norman Fenton Queen Mary University of London
Michael Finkelstein Columbia University
Angela Gallop Axiom International Ltd
Joseph Gastwirth George Washington University
Jane Hutton University of Warwick
Allan Jamieson Scottish Government
Karen Kafadar University of Virginia
Richard Lempert University of Michigan
Anne Ruth mackor University of Groningen
Kristy Martire University of New South Wales
Ruth Morgan University College London
Paul Roberts University of Nottingham
Bernard Robertson LexisNexis
Ulrich Simmross Bundeskriminalamt (BKA), Forensic Science Institute
David Spiegelhalter University of Cambridge
Lonneke Stevens Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Cheryl Thomas University College London
William Thompson University of California, Irvine
Bruce Weir University of Washington
Patricia Wiltshire University of Aberdeen

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Participants

Colin Aitken University of Edinburgh
Frans Alkemade None / Other
David Balding University of Melbourne; University College London
David Bentley Doughty Street Chambers
Sheila Bird Medical Research Council; University of Strathclyde
Alicia Carriquiry Iowa State University
David Caruso University of Adelaide
Fabio Corradi Università degli Studi di Firenze; Bocconi University
Laura Cowley Cardiff University
Giulio D'Agostini Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza; INFN, Roma La Sapienza
Christian Dahlman Lund University
Philip Dawid University of Cambridge
Jacob de Zoete Universiteit van Amsterdam
Elsemiek Deug Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Marieke Dubelaar Universiteit Leiden
Norman Fenton Queen Mary University of London
Michael Finkelstein Columbia University
Angela Gallop Axiom International Ltd
Nicola Georgiou University of London
Richard Gill Universiteit Leiden
Peter Green University of Bristol
David Hawksworth CBE Natural History Museum; None / Other
Jelte Hielkema University of Groningen
Ray Hill University of Salford
Keith Inman California State University
Allan Jamieson Scottish Government
Eleanor Jeffrey-Chaplen University of Kent
Natalia Kudryashova University of Cambridge
David Lagnado University College London
Helge Langseth Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Jeannette Leegwater Universiteit van Amsterdam; Universiteit Twente
Richard Lempert University of Michigan
Anne Ruth mackor University of Groningen
Amber Marks Queen Mary University of London
Kristy Martire University of New South Wales
Ronald Meester Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Ruth Morgan University College London
Geoffrey Stewart Morrison University of Alberta
Julia Mortera Università degli Studi Roma Tre
Martin Neil Queen Mary University of London
Sue Pope
Roberto Puch-Solis
Paul Roberts University of Nottingham
Bernard Robertson LexisNexis
Vincent Scheurer None / Other
Leila Schneps Institut de Mathématiques de Jussieu
Tamara Shengelia University College London
Bernard Silverman
Ulrich Simmross Bundeskriminalamt (BKA), Forensic Science Institute
Nadine Smit University College London
Maarten Speekenbrink University College London
David Spiegelhalter University of Cambridge
Lonneke Stevens Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Cheryl Thomas University College London
William Thompson University of California, Irvine
Torben Tvedebrink Aalborg Universitet; Københavns Universitet (University of Copenhagen)
Bruce Weir University of Washington
Patricia Wiltshire University of Aberdeen
Haoyuan Zhang Queen Mary University of London