Bayesian networks and argumentation in evidence analysis

Workshop theme

This workshop will be devoted to investigating the use of Bayesian networks in evidence analysis models for actual criminal cases ranging from the simplest (with very little evidence) to more complex ones. It will be partially structured around producing satisfactory BN models for some key well-known cases, for example those of Sally Clark and Barry George (use of probability for considering probative value of specific individual pieces of evidence and combinations of evidence), since in such cases it is known that all previous attempts to properly model these have not been complete.

Please note members of Cambridge University are welcome to turn up and sign in as a non-registered attendee on the day(s) during the workshop and attend the lecture(s). Please note that we cannot provide you with any support including name badge, meals or accommodation. In addition to visiting the INI, there are multiple ways in which you can participate remotely. Speakers

Prof Charles Berger
Dr Floris Bex
Prof Giulio D'Agostini
Prof Christian Dahlman
Dr Jacob De Zoete
Prof Paolo Garbolino
Prof Ulrike Hahn
Dr Amanda Hepler
Prof Joseph Kadane
Prof Karen Kafadar
Dr Jeroen Keppens
Prof Paul Krause
Prof Steffen Lauritzen
Dr Anjali Mazumder
Prof Julia Mortera
Prof Martin Neil
Dr Richard Overill
Prof Henry Prakken
Prof Marjan Sjerps
Prof Franco Taroni
Prof William Thompson
Dr Sjoerd Timmer
Dr Bart Verheij
Prof Tony Vignaux

Fees Registration Only

Registration Package: £202
Student Registration Package: £162

The Registration Package includes admission to all seminars, lunches and refreshments on the days that lectures take place (Monday - Friday), wine reception and formal dinner, but does not include other meals or accommodation. Registration and Accommodation

Accommodation Package: £652

The Accommodation Package includes a registration fee, bed and breakfast accommodation at Churchill College from the evening of Sunday 25th September 2016 to breakfast on Friday 30th September 2016, together with lunches and refreshments during the days that lectures take place (Monday - Thursday). The formal dinner is also included, but no other evening meals. If you require extra nights please note this request when applying. Formal Dinner Only

Formal Dinner: £50

Participants on the Accommodation Package or Registration Package, including organisers and speakers, are automatically included in this event. For all remaining participants who would like to attend, such as programme participants, the above charge will apply. Accommodation Accommodation in single study bedrooms with shared facilities and breakfast are provided at Churchill College, adjacent to the Institute. Meals Lunch Lunch will be served for all FOSW02 attendees in the Institute foyer on the days that lectures take place (Monday - Thursday). Evening Meal Participants are free to make their own arrangements for dinner. Formal Dinner The Formal Dinner will take place on Wednesday 28th September at Christ’s College, Hall. Participants on the Accommodation Package or Registration Package, including organisers and speakers, are automatically included in this event. Sponsored by

Applications for this workshop are now closed

The Institute kindly requests that any papers published as a result of this programme’s activities are credited as such. Please acknowledge the support of the Institute in your paper using the following text:

The author(s) would like to thank the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge, for support and hospitality during the programme Bayesian networks and argumentation in evidence analysis, where work on this paper was undertaken. This work was supported by EPSRC grant EP/K032208/1.

Timetable

Monday 26th September 2016
09:30 to 10:15	Registration	No Room Required
10:05 to 10:15	Welcome from John Toland (INI Director)	Room 1
10:15 to 11:00	Philip Dawid University of Cambridge An Introduction to Bayesian Networks	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:15	Henry Prakken Universiteit Utrecht; University of Groningen On how expert witnesses can give useful Bayesian analyses of complex criminal cases	Room 1
12:15 to 13:30	Lunch @ INI	No Room Required
13:30 to 14:15	Julia Mortera Università degli Studi Roma Tre Paternity testing and other inference about relationships from DNA mixtures	Room 1
14:15 to 15:00	Paolo Garbolino IUAV University of Venice Bayes Nets for the evaluation of testimony	Room 1
15:00 to 15:30	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
15:30 to 16:15	Giulio D'Agostini Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza; INFN, Roma La Sapienza Basic probabilistic issues in the Sciences and in Forensics (hopefully) clarified by a Toy Experiment modelled by a Bayesian Network	Room 1
16:15 to 17:00	Peter Vergeer Netherlands Forensic Institute A Bayesian network for glass evidence evaluation at activity level: a novel approach to model the background distribution	Room 1
17:00 to 18:00	Welcome Wine Reception at INI	No Room Required

Tuesday 27th September 2016
09:30 to 10:15	Charles Berger Ministerie van Veiligheid en Justitie On activity level propositions addressing the actor or activity	Room 1
10:15 to 11:00	Norman Fenton Queen Mary University of London Bayesian networks: challenges and opportunities in the law	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:15	Anjali Mazumder Carnegie Mellon University; University of Warwick Using Chain Event Graphs to Address Asymmetric Evidence in Legal Reasoning	Room 1
12:15 to 13:30	Lunch @ INI	No Room Required
13:30 to 14:15	Barbaros Yet None / Other A Framework to Present Bayesian Networks to Domain Experts and Potential Users	Room 1
14:15 to 15:00	Hana Chockler King's College London Causality and Responsibility in Formal Verification and Beyond	Room 1
15:00 to 15:30	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
15:30 to 16:15	Richard Overill King's College London Using Bayesian Networks to Quantify Digital Forensic Evidence and Hypotheses	Room 1
16:15 to 17:00	Eyal Zamir Hebrew University of Jerusalem The Anti-Inference Bias and Circumstantial Evidence	Room 1
17:00 to 18:00	Drinks Reception at INI	No Room Required

Wednesday 28th September 2016
09:30 to 10:15	Bart Verheij University of Groningen Three Normative Frameworks for Evidential Reasoning and their Connections: Arguments, Scenarios and Probabilities	Room 1
10:15 to 11:00	Floris Bex Universiteit Utrecht From Natural Language to Bayesian Networks (and back again)	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:15	Martin Neil Queen Mary University of London Modelling competing Legal Arguments using Bayesian Model Comparison and Averaging	Room 1
12:15 to 13:30	Lunch @ INI	No Room Required
13:30 to 14:15	Jacob de Zoete Universiteit van Amsterdam Generating Bayesian networks in Forensic Science An example from crime linkage	Room 1
14:15 to 15:00	Marjan Sjerps Universiteit van Amsterdam DNA myth busting with Bayesian networks	Room 1
15:00 to 15:30	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
15:30 to 16:15	Maria Cuellar Carnegie Mellon University Shaken Baby Syndrome on Trial: Causal Problems and Sources of Bias	Room 1
16:15 to 17:00	Bart Verheij University of Groningen ; Henry Prakken Universiteit Utrecht; University of Groningen Report on a pre-workshop on analysing a murder case	Room 1
19:30 to 22:00	Formal Dinner at Christ's College	No Room Required

Thursday 29th September 2016
09:30 to 10:15	Amanda Luby Carnegie Mellon University A Graphical Model Approach to Eyewitness Identification Data	Room 1
10:15 to 11:00	Ulrike Hahn University of London Bayesian Argumentation in the Real World	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:15	David Lagnado University College London Causal networks in evidential reasoning	Room 1
12:15 to 13:30	Lunch @ INI	No Room Required
13:30 to 14:15	Christian Dahlman Lund University Prior Probability and the Presumption of Innocence	Room 1
14:15 to 15:00	Mehera San Roque University of New South Wales Admissibility and evaluation of identification evidence: 'experts', bystanders and shapeshifters	Room 1
15:00 to 15:30	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
15:30 to 16:15	Simon De Smet University of Cambridge tba	Room 1
16:15 to 17:00	William Thompson University of California, Irvine Using Bayesian Networks to Analyze What Experts Need to Know (and When they Know Too Much)	Room 1

Probability and statistics in forensic science

Bayesian networks and argumentation in evidence analysis

Organisers

Norman Fenton Queen Mary University of London
Richard Gill Universiteit Leiden
David Lagnado University College London
Leila Schneps Institut de Mathématiques de Jussieu

Speakers

Charles Berger Ministerie van Veiligheid en Justitie
Floris Bex Universiteit Utrecht
Hana Chockler King's College London
Maria Cuellar Carnegie Mellon University
Giulio D'Agostini Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza; INFN, Roma La Sapienza
Christian Dahlman Lund University
Philip Dawid University of Cambridge
Simon De Smet University of Cambridge
Jacob de Zoete Universiteit van Amsterdam
Norman Fenton Queen Mary University of London
Paolo Garbolino IUAV University of Venice
Ulrike Hahn University of London
David Lagnado University College London
Amanda Luby Carnegie Mellon University
Anjali Mazumder Carnegie Mellon University; University of Warwick
Julia Mortera Università degli Studi Roma Tre
Martin Neil Queen Mary University of London
Richard Overill King's College London
Henry Prakken Universiteit Utrecht; University of Groningen
Mehera San Roque University of New South Wales
Marjan Sjerps Universiteit van Amsterdam
William Thompson University of California, Irvine
Peter Vergeer Netherlands Forensic Institute
Bart Verheij University of Groningen
Barbaros Yet None / Other
Eyal Zamir Hebrew University of Jerusalem

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Participants

Colin Aitken University of Edinburgh
Mikkel Andersen Aalborg Universitet
Matteo Battilana EPFL - Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
Charles Berger Ministerie van Veiligheid en Justitie
Floris Bex Universiteit Utrecht
Neil Bramley University College London
Amke Caliebe Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
Alicia Carriquiry Iowa State University
Hana Chockler King's College London
Saoirse Connor Desai City University, London
Anthony Constantinou Queen Mary University of London
Maria Cuellar Carnegie Mellon University
Giulio D'Agostini Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza; INFN, Roma La Sapienza
Christian Dahlman Lund University
Philip Dawid University of Cambridge
Jan de Koeijer None / Other
Simon De Smet University of Cambridge
Jacob de Zoete Universiteit van Amsterdam
Eugene Dementiev Queen Mary University of London
Norman Fenton Queen Mary University of London
Paolo Garbolino IUAV University of Venice
Richard Gill Universiteit Leiden
Therese Graversen Københavns Universitet (University of Copenhagen)
Ulrike Hahn University of London
David Hawksworth CBE Natural History Museum; None / Other
Hylke Jellema Rijksuniversiteit Groningen
Lotem Kaplan Carnegie Mellon University
Jeroen Keppens King's College London
Evangelia KYRIMI Queen Mary University of London
David Lagnado University College London
Helge Langseth Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Ruta Liepina None / Other
Amanda Luby Carnegie Mellon University
Kristy Martire University of New South Wales
Anjali Mazumder Carnegie Mellon University; University of Warwick
Geoffrey Stewart Morrison University of Alberta
Julia Mortera Università degli Studi Roma Tre
Martin Neil Queen Mary University of London
Erik Nyberg Monash University
Magda Osman Queen Mary University of London; University College London
Richard Overill King's College London
Paula Parpart University College London
Sue Pope
Bernard Robertson LexisNexis
Mehera San Roque University of New South Wales
Leila Schneps Institut de Mathématiques de Jussieu
Eric Schulz University College London
Klaas Slooten Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Nadine Smit University College London
William Thompson University of California, Irvine
Torben Tvedebrink Aalborg Universitet; Københavns Universitet (University of Copenhagen)
Peter Vergeer Netherlands Forensic Institute
Bart Verheij University of Groningen
Gabriel Vivó-Truyols Universiteit van Amsterdam
Marion Vorms Birkbeck, University of London; Université Paris 1
Patricia Wiltshire University of Aberdeen
Barbaros Yet None / Other
Sandy Zabell Northwestern University
Eyal Zamir Hebrew University of Jerusalem