Statistical modelling of scientific evidence

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Workshop theme

This workshop will be devoted the use of cutting-edge statistical methods in all the trace analysis situations that cause problems in court: physical evidence problems such as fibre or soil analysis, and DNA problems such as mixed samples, LCN samples, degraded samples and rare Y-haplotypes. The investigations will be supported by analysis of key well-known cases such as the Amanda Knox trial (low template and mixed DNA and rare Y-haplotype).

Timetable

Monday 7th November 2016
12:00 to 12:30	Registration	No Room Required
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch @ Wolfson Court	No Room Required
13:40 to 13:45	Welcome from Christie Marr (INI Deputy Director)	Room 1
13:45 to 14:00	Introduction	Room 1
14:00 to 15:00	Gerd Gigerenzer Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung Risk Literacy: How to Make Sense of Statistical Evidence	Room 1
15:00 to 15:30	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
15:30 to 16:15	Geoffrey Stewart Morrison University of Alberta What should a forensic scientist's likelihood ratio be?	Room 1
16:15 to 17:00	Daniel Ramos Universidad Autonoma de Madrid Measuring Performance of Likelihood-Ratio-Based Evidence Evaluation Methods	Room 1
17:00 to 18:00	Welcome Wine Reception at INI	No Room Required

Tuesday 8th November 2016
09:30 to 10:15	Gabriel Vivó-Truyols Universiteit van Amsterdam Interpreting (chemical) forensic evidence in a Bayesian framework: a multidisciplinary task	Room 1
10:15 to 11:00	William Thompson University of California, Irvine Elicitation of Priors in Bayesian Modeling of DNA Evidence	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:15	John Aston University of Cambridge Inverting Entomological Growth Curves Using Functional Data Analysis	Room 1
12:15 to 13:00	Sue Pope Modelling the best evidence	Room 1
13:00 to 13:30	Lunch @ Wolfson Court	No Room Required
14:00 to 15:00	Optional Discussion Forum: Discussion Room	Discussion Room
15:00 to 15:30	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
15:30 to 16:15	Norah Rudin Complex DNA profile interpretation: stories from across the pond	Room 1
16:15 to 17:00	Keith Inman California State University Complex DNA profile interpretation: stories from across the pond	Room 1

Wednesday 9th November 2016
09:30 to 10:15	Roberto Puch-Solis Evaluation of forensic DNA profiles while accounting for one and two repeat less and two repeat more stutters	Room 1
10:15 to 11:00	Therese Graversen Københavns Universitet (University of Copenhagen) An exact, efficient, and flexible representation of statistical models for DNA profiles	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:00	Jacob de Zoete Universiteit van Amsterdam Cell type determination and association with the DNA donor	Room 1
12:00 to 12:30	Maarten Kruijver None / Other; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Modeling subpopulations in a forensic DNA database using a latent variable approach	Room 1
12:30 to 13:00	Torben Tvedebrink Aalborg Universitet; Københavns Universitet (University of Copenhagen) Inference platform for Ancestry Informative Markers	Room 1
13:00 to 13:30	Lunch @ Wolfson Court	No Room Required
13:30 to 17:00	Social activity	No Room Required
17:00 to 18:00	Bernard Silverman Pre-Dinner Lecture: Forensic Science from the point of view of a Scientific Adviser to Government	Room 1
18:45 to 22:00	Pre-Dinner Drink followed by Formal Dinner at Emmanuel College	No Room Required

Thursday 10th November 2016
09:30 to 10:15	Mikkel Andersen Aalborg Universitet Y Chromosomal STR Markers: Assessing Evidential Value	Room 1
10:15 to 11:00	Amke Caliebe Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel Estimating trace-suspect match probabilities in forensics for singleton Y-STR haplotypes using coalescent theory	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:15	Peter Gill University of Oslo Challenges of reporting complex DNA mixtures in the court-room	Room 1
12:15 to 13:00	Klaas Slooten Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam The likelihood ratio as a random variable, with applications to DNA mixtures and kinship analysis	Room 1
13:00 to 13:30	Lunch @ Wolfson Court	No Room Required
14:00 to 15:00	Optional Discussion Forum: Discussion Room	Discussion Room
15:00 to 15:30	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
15:30 to 16:15	Michael Sigman University of Central Florida Assessing Evidentiary Value in Fire Debris Analysis	Room 1
16:15 to 17:00	James Curran University of Auckland Understanding Intra-day and Inter-day Variation in LIBS	Room 1

Friday 11th November 2016
09:45 to 10:30	Giulia Cereda Université de Lausanne; Universiteit Leiden A Bayesian nonparametric approach for the rare type problem	Room 1
10:30 to 11:00	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:00 to 11:30	Marjan Sjerps Universiteit van Amsterdam Evaluating a combination of matching class features: a general 'blind' procedure and a tire marks case	Room 1
11:30 to 12:00	Karen Kafadar University of Virginia Quantifying Information Content in Pattern Evidence	Room 1
12:00 to 12:30	David Balding University of Melbourne; University College London Inference for complex DNA profiles	Room 1
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch @ Wolfson Court	No Room Required

Probability and statistics in forensic science

Statistical modelling of scientific evidence

Organisers

David Balding University of Melbourne; University College London
Norman Fenton Queen Mary University of London
Richard Gill Universiteit Leiden
David Lagnado University College London
Leila Schneps Institut de Mathématiques de Jussieu

Speakers

Mikkel Andersen Aalborg Universitet
John Aston University of Cambridge
David Balding University of Melbourne; University College London
Amke Caliebe Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
Giulia Cereda Université de Lausanne; Universiteit Leiden
James Curran University of Auckland
Jacob de Zoete Universiteit van Amsterdam
Gerd Gigerenzer Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung
Peter Gill University of Oslo
Therese Graversen Københavns Universitet (University of Copenhagen)
Keith Inman California State University
Karen Kafadar University of Virginia
Maarten Kruijver None / Other; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Geoffrey Stewart Morrison University of Alberta
Sue Pope
Roberto Puch-Solis
Daniel Ramos Universidad Autonoma de Madrid
Norah Rudin
Michael Sigman University of Central Florida
Bernard Silverman
Marjan Sjerps Universiteit van Amsterdam
Klaas Slooten Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
William Thompson University of California, Irvine
Torben Tvedebrink Aalborg Universitet; Københavns Universitet (University of Copenhagen)
Gabriel Vivó-Truyols Universiteit van Amsterdam

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Participants

Mikkel Andersen Aalborg Universitet
John Aston University of Cambridge
David Balding University of Melbourne; University College London
Aurélie Barret Université de Lausanne
Natalia Bochkina University of Edinburgh
Amke Caliebe Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
Giulia Cereda Université de Lausanne; Universiteit Leiden
James Curran University of Auckland
Giulio D'Agostini Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza; INFN, Roma La Sapienza
Christian Dahlman Lund University
Philip Dawid University of Cambridge
Jacob de Zoete Universiteit van Amsterdam
Norman Fenton Queen Mary University of London
Rene Gaudoin None / Other
Gerd Gigerenzer Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung
Richard Gill Universiteit Leiden
Peter Gill University of Oslo
Therese Graversen Københavns Universitet (University of Copenhagen)
Keith Inman California State University
Maarten Kruijver None / Other; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
David Lagnado University College London
Steffen Lauritzen University of Copenhagen
Georgina Meakin University College London
Björn Meder Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung
Geoffrey Stewart Morrison University of Alberta
Julia Mortera Università degli Studi Roma Tre
Sherry Nakhaeizadeh University College London
Martin Neil Queen Mary University of London
Magda Osman Queen Mary University of London; University College London
Sue Pope
Roberto Puch-Solis
Daniel Ramos Universidad Autonoma de Madrid
Norah Rudin
Leila Schneps Institut de Mathématiques de Jussieu
Eric Schulz University College London
Michael Sigman University of Central Florida
Bernard Silverman
Klaas Slooten Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Nadine Smit University College London
William Thompson University of California, Irvine
Chris Triggs University of Auckland
Torben Tvedebrink Aalborg Universitet; Københavns Universitet (University of Copenhagen)
Gabriel Vivó-Truyols Universiteit van Amsterdam
Wim Wiegerinck None / Other; Radboud Universiteit Nijmegen
Patricia Wiltshire University of Aberdeen
Sandy Zabell Northwestern University