Forecast Verification and Data Assimilation in intermediate and large scale models of geophysical fluid dynamics, with applications to medium range and seasonal forecasting

Workshop theme

The second workshop of the program ‘Geophysical fluid dynamics; from mathematical theory to operational prediction‘ will focus on all aspects of predictability, sources and representation of model error as well as assimilation error in the context of medium range and seasonal atmospheric forecasts. This includes (but is not limited to) the following topics:

(1) Sources of predictability in seasonal forecasts

(2) Variability of predictability and forecast performance on decadal scales and the ramifications for forecast evaluation

(3) Effect of model misspecification on data assimilation performance

(4) Physical and mathematical perspectives on stratosphere-troposphere and ocean-atmosphere interactions

(5) What do we expect from stochastic parametrisations?

This workshop will bring together mathematicians and statisticians as well as atmospheric physicists working in either academia or operational weather and climate forecasting centres.

NOTE: This workshop is part of an Isaac Newton Satellite Programme Series and will take place at the University of Reading!

Fees

Registration Only

Registration Package: £208
Student Registration Package: £158

The Registration Package includes admission to all seminars, lunches and refreshments on the days that lectures take place (Monday - Friday), wine reception and formal dinner, but does not include other meals or accommodation.

Formal Dinner Only

Formal Dinner: £55

Participants on the Accommodation Package or Registration Package, including organisers and speakers, are automatically included in this event. For all remaining participants who would like to attend, such as programme participants, the above charge will apply.

Accommodation

Accommodation is at Stenton Hall, University of Reading

Meals

Lunch Lunch timings and location will be confirmed with timetable.

Evening Meal Participants are free to make their own arrangements for dinner.

Formal Dinner The Formal Dinner location and date is to be confirmed.

Participants on the Accommodation Package or Registration Package, including organisers and speakers, are automatically included in this event.

Timetable

Wednesday 21st September 2022
09:00 to 09:30	Registration	No Room Required
09:30 to 10:00	Welcome by INI & organizers	No Room Required
10:20 to 10:30	Questions	No Room Required
10:30 to 11:00	Coffee Break	No Room Required
11:20 to 11:30	Question and changeover	No Room Required
11:50 to 12:00	Questions	No Room Required
12:00 to 12:30	Poster pitch session	No Room Required
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch	No Room Required
13:30 to 14:30	Poster Session	No Room Required
14:30 to 14:50	Mariana Clare European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Computer, how likely is it that I need my coat tomorrow?: How neural networks can be used for both probabilistic weather forecasting and post-processing of NWP models	No Room Required
14:50 to 15:00	Questions and changeover	No Room Required
15:00 to 15:30	Coffee	No Room Required
15:50 to 16:00	Questions and changeover	No Room Required
16:20 to 16:30	Questions and changeover	No Room Required
17:00 to 18:00	Drinks reception and posters	No Room Required

Thursday 22nd September 2022
10:20 to 10:30	Questions	No Room Required
10:30 to 11:00	Coffee break	No Room Required
11:00 to 11:20	Sebastian Reich Universität Potsdam Data assimilation: A dynamic homotopy-based coupling approach	No Room Required
11:20 to 11:30	Questions	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:30	Poster Session	No Room Required
12:30 to 14:00	Lunch	No Room Required
14:00 to 14:20	Talk TBC	No Room Required
14:20 to 14:30	Questions and changeover	No Room Required
14:50 to 15:00	Questions	No Room Required
15:00 to 15:30	Coffee	No Room Required
15:50 to 16:00	Questions and changeover	No Room Required
16:20 to 16:30	Questions and changeover	No Room Required
16:50 to 17:00	Questions and changeover	No Room Required
17:00 to 18:00	Discussion	No Room Required
19:30 to 22:00	Dinner	No Room Required

Friday 23rd September 2022
10:00 to 10:20	Talk TBC	No Room Required
10:20 to 10:30	Questions	No Room Required
10:30 to 11:00	Coffee break	No Room Required
11:20 to 11:30	Questions and changeover	No Room Required
11:50 to 12:00	Questions and changeover	No Room Required
12:00 to 12:20	Ted Shepherd University of Reading Bringing physical reasoning into statistical practice in forecast verification on S2S timescales	No Room Required
12:20 to 12:30	Questions and changeover	No Room Required
12:30 to 14:00	Lunch	No Room Required
14:20 to 14:30	Questions and changeover	No Room Required
14:30 to 14:50	Tsz Yan Leung Met Office The impact of hybrid oceanic data assimilation in a coupled model: A case study of a tropical cyclone	No Room Required
14:50 to 15:00	Questions	No Room Required
15:00 to 16:00	Coffee and wrap-up	No Room Required

Geophysical fluid dynamics; from mathematical theory to operational prediction

Forecast Verification and Data Assimilation in intermediate and large scale models of geophysical fluid dynamics, with applications to medium range and seasonal forecasting

Organisers

Jochen Broecker University of Reading
Giulia Carigi University of L'Aquila; University of Reading
Tobias Kuna University of Reading; University of L'Aquila

Speakers

Mariana Clare European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
Tsz Yan Leung Met Office
Sebastian Reich Universität Potsdam; University of Reading
Ted Shepherd University of Reading

Participants

Eviatar Bach CALTECH (California Institute of Technology)
Werner Bauer University of Surrey
Zied Ben bouallegue European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
Julie Bessac Argonne National Laboratory
Hakima Bessaih Florida International University
Onno Bokhove University of Leeds
Jochen Broecker University of Reading
Giulia Carigi University of L'Aquila; University of Reading
Bin Cheng University of Surrey
Mariana Clare European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
Dan Crisan Imperial College London
Mike Cullen Met Office (retired)
Clement Dombry Université de Franche-Comté
Simon Driscoll University of Reading
Franco Flandoli Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa
Alison Fowler University of Reading
Devon Francis University of Reading
Michael Ghil University of California, Los Angeles; CNRS - Ecole Normale Superieure Paris
Samuel Asante Gyamerah Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST)
Darryl Holm Imperial College London
Nikolas Kantas Imperial College London
Boualem Khouider University of Victoria
Peter Korn Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorology
Tobias Kuna University of L'Aquila
Xue Mei Li Imperial College London
Han Cheng Lie Universität Potsdam
Vincent Martinez City University of New York
John Methven University of Reading
Lea Olijaca University of Exeter
Lea Oljaca University of Exeter
Romain Pic CNRS (Centre national de la recherche scientifique); Université de Franche-Comté
Chiara Piccolo Met Office
Sebastian Reich Universität Potsdam
Joran Rolland Université Lille 1
Claudia Schillings Freie Universität Berlin
Ted Shepherd University of Reading
Wilhelm Stannat Technische Universität Berlin
Maxime Taillardat Météo France; None / Other
Miguel Teixeira University of Reading
Antje Weisheimer European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); University of Oxford
Paul Williams University of Reading
Caroline Wormell Sorbonne Université
Jeroen Wouters Technische Universität Hamburg-Harburg

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