Infectious disease dynamics

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Workshop theme

Diagram of the spread of infection on a network

In 2013, it is 20 years since a six-month programme on Epidemic Models was held at the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences in Cambridge, UK. This programme was very influential in shaping the research field of infectious disease dynamics from its mostly mathematical initial development in the nineteen-seventies and eighties to its current breadth and depth, dealing with important veterinary and human infections.

In the last 20 years, the field has changed profoundly in many ways: it has attracted many researchers, who come from a very large range of disciplines, most taking a biological question rather than a methodological question as the starting point for their research; the use of models to inform (veterinary and human public) health policy has matured; the integration with data, and the required methodology, has become much stronger; sources of heterogeneity, previously often neglected, or unrecognised as important, have become much richer, partly as a result of the availability of new data sources and profound advances in data gathering techniques, computing techniques and power; many new infectious agents have appeared making scientific efforts in understanding infectious disease dynamics even more relevant to the real world. Both key veterinary and human infections were instrumental in shaping the field, it is expected that notably zoonotic infections will move the field further in the next decades.

We aim to bring together 100 scientists in our field, mostly on an invitation basis, across a wide range of interests, disciplines and ages, to define what these changes mean for the future of the field and to establish a research agenda for the coming decade. In addition, we celebrate the twentieth anniversary of the instrumental initial Newton programme.

Given the nature of the meeting, we are directly inviting the speakers (balancing the participants from the original 1993 meeting, as well as later generations of researchers) and asking them specifically to address the broad topics that we have identified. The workshop will run for five days, ending after lunch on Friday 23 August. There will be one and a half days devoted to painting 20 years of post-Newton developments, one and a half days devoted to topics of great importance for the future of the field, and two half days devoted to public health needs with respect to our collective insight and methodology. We have chosen a form for the workshop that maximises the opportunity for discussion.

The nature of the workshop is that speakers will be addressing their themes broadly, instead of talking about their own work in this area. For that reason, there will, as part of the workshop, be the possibility to present and discuss posters on more specific focussed new research.

Although attendance is mostly by invitation, there are a small number of places available for young scientists in the field of infectious disease dynamics, with preference for scientists from outside Europe and the USA. The organising committee will decide which applicants can come to the meeting, should more people apply than places exist.

Timetable

Monday 19th August 2013
08:30 to 09:20	Registration	No Room Required
09:20 to 09:30	Welcome by John Toland, Director of the Institute	Room 1
09:30 to 10:00	Denis Mollison Heriot-Watt University Setting the scene	Room 1
10:00 to 10:30	Valerie Isham University College London Stochastic methods: past, present and future. Part I	Room 1
10:30 to 11:00	Pieter Trapman Stockholm University Stochastic Methods - past, present and future	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:00	Mick Roberts Massey University Deterministic models: twenty years on. I. Spatially homogeneous models	Room 1
12:00 to 12:30	Lorenzo Pellis Imperial College London Deterministic models: twenty years on. II. Spatially inhomogeneous models	Room 1
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch at Wolfson Court	No Room Required
13:30 to 14:00	Ira Longini University of Florida Mathematical Models for the Control of Infectious Diseases With Vaccines	Room 1
14:00 to 14:30	Simon Cauchemez Imperial College London Twenty years of statistical methods for the study of infectious diseases	Room 1
14:30 to 15:00	Bryan Grenfell Princeton University Linking models and data: Sense and Susceptibility	Room 1
15:00 to 15:30	Jessica Metcalf University of Oxford Linking models and data for infectious disease dynamics: rubella as a case-study	Room 1
15:30 to 16:00	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
16:00 to 17:00	James Wood University of Cambridge The evolution of pathogen evolution	Room 1
17:00 to 18:00	Don Klinkenberg Universiteit Utrecht Veterinary epidemiology: where mathematical modellers , biologists, animal scientists, and veterinarians (should) meet	Room 1
18:00 to 19:00	Welcome Drinks Reception	No Room Required

Tuesday 20th August 2013
09:00 to 09:30	Thomas House University of Warwick Epidemics and population structure: One step forward, and two steps back	Room 1
09:30 to 10:00	Martina Morris University of Washington Exponential Family Random Graph Models: A data-driven bridge between networks and epidemics	Room 1
10:00 to 10:30	Chris Dye World Health Organization Infectious diseases in the changing landscape of public health	Room 1
10:30 to 11:00	Nim Arinaminpathy Princeton University Dollars and disease: developing new perspectives for public health	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:30 to 12:00	Multi-host, multi-parasite dynamics	Room 1
12:00 to 12:30	Juliet Pulliam University of Florida Embracing the complexities of scale and diversity in disease ecology	Room 1
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch at Wolfson Court	No Room Required
14:00 to 14:30	Phil O'Neill University of Nottingham Data and Statistics: New methods and future challenges	Room 1
14:30 to 15:00	Ottar Nordal Bjornstad Pennsylvania State University Some challenges to make current data-driven (‘statistical’) models even more relevant to public health	Room 1
15:00 to 15:30	Tiffany Bogich Princeton University Inference pipelines for nonlinear time series analysis applied to an emerging childhood infection	Room 1
15:30 to 16:00	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
16:00 to 16:30	Frank Ball University of Nottingham Stochastic epidemic modelling and analysis: current perspective and future challenges	Room 1
16:30 to 17:00	Tom Britton Stockholm University Stochastic epidemic modelling and analysis: current perspective and future challenges	Room 1

Wednesday 21st August 2013
09:00 to 09:30	John Drake University of Georgia Early warning signals of critical transitions in infectious disease dynamics	Room 1
09:30 to 10:00	Betz Halloran Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Centre Design and Analysis of Vaccine Trials	Room 1
10:00 to 10:30	Mark Woolhouse University of Edinburgh Theory and practice of infectious disease surveillance	Room 1
10:30 to 11:00	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:00 to 11:30	Alun L Lloyd North Carolina State University Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions	Room 1
11:30 to 12:00	Cécile Viboud National Institutes of Health Inference of epidemiological dynamics using sequence data: application to influenza	Room 1
12:00 to 12:30	Daniela De Angelis University of Cambridge Multiple Data Sources, Missing and Biased Data	Room 1
12:30 to 13:30	Sandwich lunch at INI	No Room Required
13:30 to 15:30	Free/Excursions	No Room Required
18:00 to 19:00	Thomas William Körner University of Cambridge Special Lecture at Cambridge Union Society: The Mathematics of Smallpox	No Room Required
19:30 to 22:00	Conference Dinner at Cambridge Union Society hosted by Cambridge Dining Company	No Room Required

Thursday 22nd August 2013
09:00 to 09:30	Odo Diekmann Universiteit Utrecht On the Formulation of Deterministic Epidemic Models	Room 1
09:30 to 10:00	Hans Heesterbeek Universiteit Utrecht Modelling infectious agents in food webs	Room 1
10:00 to 10:30	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
10:30 to 11:00	Ken Eames London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Network measurement: past and future	Room 1
11:00 to 11:30	Matt Keeling University of Warwick Future of network modelling	Room 1
11:30 to 12:00	Shweta Bansal Georgetown University Network structure consequences and control: past and future	Room 1
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch at Wolfson Court	No Room Required
13:30 to 14:00	Trevor Bedford University of Edinburgh What can we learn from viral phylogenies?	Room 1
14:00 to 14:30	Oliver Pybus University of Oxford The Evolution & Adaptation of Influenza A Viruses in Swine	Room 1
14:30 to 15:00	Jamie Lloyd-Smith University of California, Los Angeles Whither disease ecology? Old problems and new solutions in a complex world	Room 1
15:00 to 15:30	Peter Hudson Pennsylvania State University Whither disease ecology? Old problems and new solutions	Room 1
15:30 to 16:00	Afternoon Tea	No Room Required
16:00 to 16:30	Sebastian Bonhoeffer ETH Zürich Recovering transmission structure and dynamics from viral sequence data	Room 1
16:30 to 17:00	Sunetra Gupta University of Oxford The role of multi-locus models in understanding within-host population dynamics	Room 1

Friday 23rd August 2013
09:00 to 09:30	Brian Williams South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA) Ending AIDS: Past, Present and Yet to Come	Room 1
09:30 to 10:00	Azra Ghani Imperial College London Models for Malaria Control and Elimination	Room 1
10:00 to 10:30	Petra Klepac University of Cambridge International agreements for optimal disease control	Room 1
10:30 to 11:00	Morning Coffee	No Room Required
11:00 to 11:30	John Edmunds London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Decision Making for Prevention/Control Under Economic Constraints	Room 1
11:30 to 12:30	Roy Anderson Imperial College London Recent progress in mathematical epidemiology and some future needs	Room 1
12:30 to 13:30	Sandwich lunch at INI	No Room Required

Speakers

Roy Anderson Imperial College London
Nim Arinaminpathy Princeton University
Frank Ball University of Nottingham
Shweta Bansal Georgetown University
Trevor Bedford University of Edinburgh
Ottar Nordal Bjornstad Pennsylvania State University
Tiffany Bogich Princeton University
Sebastian Bonhoeffer ETH Zürich
Tom Britton Stockholm University
Simon Cauchemez Imperial College London
Daniela De Angelis University of Cambridge
Odo Diekmann Universiteit Utrecht
John Drake University of Georgia
Chris Dye World Health Organization
Ken Eames London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
John Edmunds London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Azra Ghani Imperial College London
Bryan Grenfell University of Cambridge
Sunetra Gupta University of Oxford
Betz Halloran Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Centre
Hans Heesterbeek Universiteit Utrecht
Thomas House University of Warwick
Peter Hudson Pennsylvania State University
Valerie Isham University College London
Matt Keeling University of Warwick
Petra Klepac University of Cambridge
Don Klinkenberg Universiteit Utrecht
Thomas William Körner University of Cambridge
Alun L Lloyd North Carolina State University
Jamie Lloyd-Smith University of California, Los Angeles
Ira Longini University of Florida
Jessica Metcalf University of Oxford
Denis Mollison Heriot-Watt University
Martina Morris University of Washington
Phil O'Neill University of Nottingham
Lorenzo Pellis Imperial College London
Juliet Pulliam University of Florida
Oliver Pybus University of Oxford
Mick Roberts Massey University
Pieter Trapman Stockholm University
Cécile Viboud National Institutes of Health
Brian Williams South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA)
James Wood University of Cambridge
Mark Woolhouse University of Edinburgh

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