IDP
5 May 2020 to 18 December 2020
June 2022 update: This programme led to a special issue of the journal Epidemics on "Challenges for Future Pandemics". You can view the special issue here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/epidemics/special-issue/10DM7ZPJKM9
October 2020 update: Please note that at the start of October 2020 the decision was made to extend the IDP programme until the end of the year, at the very least. The organisers requested this extension in order to build on the work of the programme with outputs that may be helpful for future research. The stated goal is to produce a set of papers summarising the challenges that scientists need to address in order to help the world avoid, or deal better, with future pandemics.
May 2020 update: Due to current events, this is a virtualised programme
Mathematical modelling has played an unprecedented role in informing public health policy on the control of the current COVID19 pandemic. Infectious disease modelling groups in the UK and globally have necessarily been working in ‘response’ mode to provide real-time modelling of the pandemic as it unfolds. However, this has left limited time for longer-term thinking about the challenges of understanding the dynamics of this particular pandemic. There is therefore an additional need for experts to discuss, explore and analyse surrounding issues including model assumptions, strategies for surveillance, contact tracing, use of diagnostics, and social distancing. A key aim of this programme is to address this need for longer-term thinking.
This programme will support the activities of the Royal Society’s Rapid Assistance in Modelling the Pandemic (RAMP) programme through additional capacity to provide rapid assessment of strategies of immediate policy relevance. Furthermore, programme participants will provide critical assessment of extant models, considering alternatives and identifying improvements. This is vital to avoid duplication of effort and the potential for analyses which misinterpret key aspects of the epidemiology or make incorrect assumptions regarding underlying data. Finally, this programme will provide the space for considered, collaborative thinking, providing new ideas and directions, forging novel interdisciplinary links as well as reflecting on lessons learned for future pandemics with regard to planning, prevention and control.
Through a range of virtual events this programme will bring together researchers from a broad range of disciplines, from applied epidemiology to fundamental mathematics. Events will include virtual study groups and webinars. It is hoped that this programme will provide a community of researchers to support the mathematical modelling work to address this current pandemic globally.
If you would like to note your interest in participating in the programme, please complete the 'expression of interest' form. Once the required details are submitted, we will contact you regarding the outcome of your application in 3-5 working days.
This workshop will examine, compare and discuss the approaches being currently used for modelling the pandemic with potential new approaches. Participants from outside the traditional epidemiological modelling field can bring experience of modelling, for example, behaviour, movement and social structure, as well as of computational optimisation and data visualisation.
> Click here to see the content produced by Plus Magazine during the IDP programme
Title | Year | Programme | |
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Getting the most out of maths: How to coordinate mathematical modelling research to support a pandemic, lessons learnt from COVID-19Authors: Maha Kaouri, Kostas Kavoussanakis, Jane Leeks, Philip Main, Christie Marr, Clare Merritt, Surajit Ray, Robin Thompson, Alex Wakefield, Dawn Wasley, Denis Mollison, Ciara Dangerfield, David Abrahams, Christopher Budd, Matt Butchers, Mike Cates, Alan Champneys, Christine Currie, Jessica Enright, Julia Gog, Alain Goriely, Deirdre Hollingsworth, Deirdre Hollingsworth, Rebecca Hoyle, INI Professional Services, Valerie Isham, Jo Jordan |
2020 | IDP | 18 July 2022 |
Modelling: understanding pandemics and how to control themAuthors: Glenn Marion, Liza Hadley, Valerie Isham, Denis Mollison, Ben Swallow, Pieter Trapman, Daniel Villela, Lorenzo Pellis, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba, Francesca Scarabel |
2020 | IDP | 27 September 2021 |
Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemicsAuthors: Elizabeth Fearon, Mirjam E. Kretzschmar, Ben Ashby, Christopher E. Overton, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, Lorenzo Pellis, Matthew Quaife, Ganna Rozhnova, Francesca Scarabel, Helena B Stage, Ben Swallow, Robin N. Thompson, Michael J.Tildesley, Daniel Villela |
2020 | IDP | 27 September 2021 |
Challenges of integrating economics into epidemiological analysis of emerging infectious diseasesAuthors: Shaun Hargreaves Heap, Jason F. Shogren, Flavio Toxvaerd, Ciara Dangerfield, Eli P. Fenichel, David Finnoff, Nick Hanley |
2020 | IDP | 13 August 2021 |
The Challenges of Data in Future PandemicsAuthors: Iain J. McKendrick, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, Lorenzo Pellis, Richard Reeve, Ben Swallow, Nigel Shadbolt, Alys Brett, Min Chen, Glenn Mario |
2020 | IDP | 13 August 2021 |
7. Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modellingAuthors: Michael Goldstein, Victoria Hemming, Glenn Marion, TJ McKinley, Christopher Overton, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, Lorenzo Pellis, Will Prober, Katriona Shea, Daniel Villela, Ben Swallow, Paul Birrell, Joshua Blake, Mark Burgman, Ian Vernon, Luc E. Coffeng, Philip Dawid, Peter Challenor, Daniela De Angelis |
2020 | IDP | 11 August 2021 |
RAMPVIS: Answering the Challenges of Building Visualisation Capabilities for Large-scale Emergency ResponsesAuthors: H. Fang, M. Chen, A. Abdul-Rahman, D. Archambault, J. Dykes, A. Slingsby, P.D. Ritsos, T. Torsney-Weir, C. Turkay, B. Bach, R. Borgo, A. Brett, R. Jianu, S. Khan, S. Laramee, P. H. Nguyen, R. Reeve, J. C. Roberts, F. Vidal, Q. Wang, J. Wood, K. Xu |
2020 | IDP | 29 June 2021 |
Challenges of Evaluating and Modeling Vaccination in Emerging Infectious DiseasesAuthors: Kourtney J. Davis, Claudio J. Struchiner, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Paul M. Coplan, Jesse A. Berlin, Natalie E. Dean, Zachary J. Madewell |
2020 | IDP | 11 June 2021 |
Challenges in predicting endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens.Authors: Petra Klepac, C. Jessica Metcalf, Soa Fy Andriamandimby, Rachel Baker, Emma E. Glennon, Katie Hampson, Deirdre Hollingsworth, Amy Wesolowski |
2020 | IDP | 21 May 2021 |
Challenges in modeling the emergence of novel pathogens.Authors: Benjamin L. Rice, Robin N. Thompson, Konstans Wells, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Justin Lessler, Marjolein Bruijning, Emma E. Glennon, Ian F. Miller |
2020 | IDP | 19 May 2021 |
Challenges on the interaction of models and policy for pandemic control (VSI Challenges for Future Pandemics)Authors: Peter Challenor, Chris Dent, Valerie Isham, Denis Mollison, D.A. Robertson, Ben Swallow, Cerian Webb, Liza Hadley |
2020 | IDP | 13 May 2021 |
Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife-human interfaceAuthors: Kons Wells, Mick Roberts, Olivier Restif, Andy Dobson |
2020 | IDP | 13 May 2021 |
SARS-COV-2 INFECTION IN UK UNIVERSITY STUDENTS: LESSONS FROM SEPTEMBER-DECEMBER 2020 AND MODELLING INSIGHTS FOR FUTURE STUDENT RETURNAuthors: Julia Gog, Jessica Enright, Edward Hill, HELENA B. STAGE, Kirsty Joy Bolton, EMILY J. NIXON, EMMA L. FAIRBANKS, Maria Tang, ELLEN BROOKS-POLLOCK, Louise Dyson, Christopher Budd, Rebecca Hoyle, Lars Schewe, MICHAEL J. TILDESLEY |
2020 | IDP | 21 February 2021 |
KEY QUESTIONS FOR MODELLING 1 COVID-19 EXIT STRATEGIESAuthors: Philip Dawid, Robin Thompson, Deirdre Hollingsworth, Valerie Isham, Daniel Arribas-Bel, Ben Ashby, Tom Britton, Peter Challenor, Lauren H.K. Chappell, Hannah Clapham, Nik Cunniffe, Christl Donnelly, Rosalind Eggo, Sebastian Funk, Nigel Gilbert, Julia Gog, Paul Glendinning, William S. Hart, Hans Heesterbeek, Thomas House, Matt Keeling, Istvan Kiss, Mirjam Kretzschmar, Alun L Lloyd, Emma McBryde, James McCaw, Joel Miller, TJ McKinley, Martina Morris, Phil O'Neill, Carl Pearson, Kris V. Parag, Lorenzo Pellis, Juliet Pulliam, Joshua Ross, Michael Tildesley, Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba, Bernard Silverman, Claudio Jose Struchiner, Pieter Trapman, Cerian Webb, Denis Mollison, Olivier Restif |
2020 | IDP | 8 October 2020 |
Statistical Methods in Medical Research; Commentary on the use of the reproduction number R during the COVID-19 pandemicAuthors: Ciara Dangerfield, Jane Heffernan, Deirdre Hollingsworth, Valerie Isham, Ben Collyer, Robert Challen, Ellen Brooks Pollock, Frank Ball, Eben Kenah, Denis Mollison, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, Lorenzo Pellis, Michael G Roberts, Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba, Robin Thompson, Pieter Trapman, Sam Abbott, Carolin Vegvari, Julia Gog, Katelyn M Gostic |
2020 | IDP | 8 October 2020 |
Recommendations for Augmenting Contact Tracing in the UK: Learnng from Other DiseaseAuthors: Denis Mollison, Lorenzo Pellis, Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba, Caroline Trotter, Cerian Webb, Deirdre Hollingsworth, Julia Gog, Rebecca F Baggaley, University of Leicester, Lauren Chappell, University of Oxford, Liz Fearon, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Martyn Fyles, University of Manchester, Katie Hampson, University of Glasgow, Anatole Menon-Johansson, Guy's & St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, Jane Meyrick, University of West of England, Jane Nicholls, Cardiff and Vale University Health Board, Manish Pareek, University of Leicester, Katy Turner, University of Bristol, Lucy Yardley, University of Bristol, Rosalind Eggo, Christopher Dye, Emma Davis, Ben Ashby |
2020 | IDP | 9 June 2020 |
11 May 2020 to 15 May 2020
18 May 2020 to 22 May 2020
23 June 2020 to 25 June 2020
7 July 2020 to 8 July 2020
29 July 2020 to 30 July 2020
10 September 2020 to 25 September 2020
Friday 5th June 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
14:30 to 15:00 | Room 2 | ||
15:00 to 15:30 |
Denis Mollison Heriot-Watt University |
Room 2 | |
15:30 to 15:45 | Room 2 | ||
15:45 to 16:15 | Room 2 |
Monday 8th June 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
13:30 to 17:00 | Room 2 |
Wednesday 10th June 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
14:00 to 18:30 | No Room Required | ||
14:00 to 14:05 |
EXPERT JUDGEMENT - Welcome from David Abrahams (INI Director) |
Room 1 | |
14:05 to 14:35 | Room 1 | |
|
14:35 to 15:05 |
Kevin Wilson (Newcastle) - Uncertainty elicitation and quantification from experts |
Room 1 | |
15:05 to 15:35 |
Katriona Shea (Penn State) - Harnessing multiple models for outbreak management |
Room 1 | |
15:35 to 16:05 |
Marissa McBride (Imperial) - Lessons from structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol |
Room 1 | |
16:05 to 17:00 |
Panel Discussion (questions submitted via slido and asked by chair) |
Room 1 | |
17:00 to 17:30 | Room 1 | ||
17:30 to 18:30 | Room 1 | |
Thursday 11th June 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 10:30 |
Whole-cost economic modelling of pandemics - Peter van Manen, Clement O'Rourke (Frazer-Nash) |
Room 2 | |
11:00 to 11:10 |
Control theory in relation to epidemic interventions - Brian Neve (Spiro) Control |
Room 2 | |
14:00 to 16:00 | Room 2 |
Friday 12th June 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
15:30 to 17:00 | Room 1 | ||
15:30 to 15:45 | Room 1 |
Monday 15th June 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
09:00 to 10:30 |
OPEN ZOOM MEETING - session 3 follow up dicussions - Chair William Probert |
Room 1 |
Monday 22nd June 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
08:30 to 09:50 | Room 2 | ||
09:50 to 10:00 | Room 2 | ||
10:00 to 10:40 | Room 2 | ||
10:40 to 11:00 |
Modelling for SARS-CoV2 - what can we learn from China? Questions and discussions |
Room 2 |
Wednesday 1st July 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
17:00 to 18:00 |
Paul Linden University of Cambridge |
Room 1 | |
Thursday 2nd July 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
09:30 to 11:30 | Room 2 |
Friday 3rd July 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
17:00 to 18:00 |
Adam Kucharski London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine |
Room 1 | |
Friday 10th July 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
09:30 to 09:50 |
Mark Birkin University of Leeds |
Room 2 | |
09:50 to 10:10 | Room 2 | ||
10:10 to 10:30 |
Modelling behaviour, Adam Dennett, Richard Milton, Ying Jin and Mike Batty |
Room 2 | |
10:30 to 10:50 |
Epidemic simulation and scenario planning: Gavin Shaddick, Nick Malleson |
Room 2 | |
10:50 to 11:30 | Room 2 | ||
11:30 to 12:00 | Room 2 | ||
12:00 to 12:20 |
The MATSIM Pandemic Model for Greater London – Gerry Casey, Claire Fram and Fred Shone |
Room 2 | |
12:20 to 12:40 | Room 2 | ||
12:40 to 13:00 |
Representing Movement and Simulating Infection in Small Spaces – Lachlan Miles |
Room 2 |
Tuesday 14th July 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
14:00 to 14:30 |
Ian Vernon Durham University |
Room 2 | |
14:30 to 15:00 |
Michael Goldstein Durham University |
Room 2 | |
15:00 to 15:30 |
Serge Guillas University College London |
Room 2 | |
15:30 to 16:00 |
Session 1: Advanced Uncertainty Quantification: Discussion Session |
Room 2 |
Wednesday 15th July 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
13:30 to 17:00 | Room 2 | ||
13:55 to 14:05 |
Streetspace allocation analysis in London, Nicolas Palominos |
Room 2 |
Thursday 16th July 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
14:00 to 14:20 |
Ronni Bowman Defence Science and Technology Laboratory |
Room 2 | |
14:20 to 14:40 |
Daniel Williamson University of Exeter |
Room 2 | |
14:40 to 14:50 |
TJ McKinley University of Exeter |
Room 2 | |
14:50 to 15:00 |
Simon Spencer University of Warwick |
Room 2 | |
15:00 to 15:10 | Room 2 | ||
15:10 to 15:20 | Room 2 |
Friday 24th July 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
12:00 to 13:00 |
Arnoldo Frigessi University of Oslo |
Room 1 | |
Tuesday 28th July 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
09:00 to 13:00 |
COVID -19 and higher education: speakers and titles to be advised |
Room 2 |
Tuesday 25th August 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 12:00 | Room 2 |
Thursday 27th August 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
15:00 to 17:00 | Room 2 |
Tuesday 1st September 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths University of Oxford; University College London |
Room 2 |
Thursday 3rd September 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
15:00 to 17:00 | Room 2 |
Friday 4th September 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
09:30 to 11:00 | Room 2 |
Tuesday 20th October 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
09:30 to 11:30 |
Shaun Hargreaves Heap King's College London |
Room 2 |
Wednesday 21st October 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
09:30 to 11:30 |
Hannah Clapham National University of Singapore |
Room 2 | |
14:00 to 16:00 |
C. Jessica Metcalf Princeton University |
Room 2 |
Thursday 22nd October 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
09:30 to 11:30 |
Mirjam Kretzschmar Universitair Medisch Centrum Utrecht; Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu (RIVM) |
Room 2 | |
14:00 to 16:00 |
Why is Covid such a wicked problem Bernard Silverman - Chris Dye - Andrew Dobson |
Room 2 |
Friday 23rd October 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
14:00 to 16:00 | Room 2 |
Thursday 29th October 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
09:30 to 11:30 |
Nigel Gilbert University of Surrey |
Room 2 | |
15:00 to 17:00 |
Deirdre Hollingsworth University of Oxford |
Room 2 |
Monday 2nd November 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
09:00 to 10:30 |
Mick Roberts Massey University |
Room 2 | |
12:55 to 14:30 |
Intervention choices for covid19 – different country perspectives - Chair - Deirdre Hollingsworth |
Room 1 | |
13:00 to 13:45 | Room 1 | |
|
13:45 to 14:30 | Room 1 | |
Tuesday 3rd November 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
14:00 to 15:30 |
Challenges 1, 2, & 3 General Discussion - Andy Dobson - Jess Metcalf |
Room 2 |
Wednesday 4th November 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
14:00 to 16:00 | Room 2 |
Thursday 5th November 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
21:00 to 22:00 | Room 2 |
Thursday 19th November 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
17:00 to 18:30 | Room 2 |
Wednesday 25th November 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
17:00 to 18:30 | Room 2 |
Wednesday 2nd December 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
17:00 to 18:30 | Room 2 |
Wednesday 9th December 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
17:15 to 18:30 | Room 2 |
Wednesday 16th December 2020 | |||
---|---|---|---|
17:00 to 18:30 | Room 2 |
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