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Timetable (IDPW06)

Future pandemics

Thursday 10th September 2020 to Friday 25th September 2020

Thursday 10th September 2020
09:15 to 09:30 Welcome from David Abrahams (INI Director) INI 1
09:25 to 11:30 Theme 1: The Emergence of New Diseases Chair: Deirdre Hollingsworth (Big Data Institute) INI 1
09:30 to 10:15 Eddie Holmes (University of Sydney)
Spotting the next pandemic: prospecting or preparedness?
Zoonotic diseases have long been a major burden on human societies and are expected to increase in frequency and impact as we interact more with the animal world and as the global population increases in both size and productivity. Fortunately, new genomic tools, particularly metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS), provide a uniquely powerful means to rapidly reveal the microbial composition of any sample without bias, provide key information on the diversity, structure and evolution of the virosphere, help determine how microbes move across the human-animal interface and the drivers of disease emergence, and reveal the origins of specific epidemics. Herein, I demonstrate the utility of mNGS for pathogen discovery and understanding disease emergence on clinically actionable time-scales. In doing so, I will demonstrate how these genomic tools can form a key component to new approaches to pandemic preparedness. As a case study will focus on the initial emergence of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) at the end of 2019. I will discuss the most likely theories for its origin and emergence, and consider why coronaviruses seem particularly able to jump species boundaries and emerge in new hosts. I will conclude by outlining the ways in which we can potentially prevent pandemics like that of COVID-19 ever happening again.

10:15 to 11:00 Mark Woolhouse (University of Edinburgh)
What will cause the next pandemic?
11:00 to 11:30 Discussion INI 1
11:30 to 15:00 Break
14:55 to 17:00 Theme 1: The Emergence of New Diseases Chair: Christl Donelly (University of Oxford, Imperial College London) INI 1
15:00 to 15:45 Andrew Dobson (Princeton University); (Santa Fe Institute)
Spotting the next pandemic: prospecting or preparedness?
Coivd-19’s arrival in the human population
was inevitable. There is a huge
diversity of viral pathogens circulating in bats and other small mammals. Three groups of people are exposed to them
through their livelihoods: traders in the wildlife trade, the miners and
loggers destroying tropical forests and those working in intensive
agriculture. The initial dynamics of
novel virus in these three groups of people and their families determine
whether novel viruses will spread into urban areas and from there to the rest
of the world.

This talk will fall into three sections:
(1) Initially I’ll discuss ways to estimate the diversity of viruses with
zoonotic potential and how this determines the risk they will spread from the
initial crossover hosts into the rest of the human population. (2) I’ll then briefly discuss some earlier
models for how forest destruction changes the risk of transmission of viruses
from forest species to those converting the forest or those living in the newly
converted agricultural matrix. (3) In
the final section, I’ll develop some economic approaches that compare the cost
of modifying the activities that increase risk of viral emergence with the
current estimated cost of the Covid19 pandemic.
15:45 to 16:30 Discussion INI 1
Friday 11th September 2020
14:25 to 16:45 Theme 2: Tackling New Diseases - Chair Valerie Isham(UCL) INI 1
14:30 to 15:15 Salim S. Abdool Karim (CAPRISA - Centre for aids programme of research in South Africa); (Columbia University)
Intervention choices, what are the issues
15:15 to 15:45 Ted Cohen (Yale University)
Controlling epidemics of respiratory diseases: lessons from tuberculosis
15:45 to 16:15 C. Jessica Metcalf (Princeton University)
Challenges in modelling emerging new diseases
16:15 to 16:45 Discussion INI 1
Monday 14th September 2020
09:25 to 11:30 Theme 2: Tackling New Diseases Chair: Denis Mollison (Herriot-Watt University) INI 1
09:30 to 10:15 Michael Baker (University of Otago)
The elimination strategy for responding to pandemics: the New Zealand Experience
10:15 to 11:00 Brendan Murphy (University College Dublin)
Experience in Ireland
11:00 to 11:30 Discussion INI 1
Friday 18th September 2020
15:25 to 17:30 Theme 3: The Wider Context - Chair - Jess Metcalf INI 1
15:30 to 16:15 Christopher Dye (University of Oxford); (University of Oxford)
Unlikely disasters: pandemics, prevention and public health
16:15 to 17:00 Jamie Lloyd-Smith (University of California, Los Angeles)
Factors contributing to transmissibility
17:00 to 17:30 Discussion INI 1
Monday 21st September 2020
13:55 to 16:00 Theme 3: The Wider Context Chair - Andy Dobson (Princeton University) INI 1
14:00 to 14:45 Deirdre Hollingsworth (University of Oxford)
Neglected tropical diseases
14:45 to 15:30 Anna Vassall (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)
Interactions between health and economic impact in pandemics: from data to decisions
15:30 to 16:00 Discussion INI 1
Tuesday 22nd September 2020
13:55 to 16:00 Theme 3: The Wider Context Chair: Caroline Trotter(University of Cambridge) INI 1
14:00 to 14:45 Shaun Hargreaves Heap (King's College London)
Valuing health
14:45 to 15:30 Tim Besley (London School of Economics)
Inequality, real-time economics and his thoughts about learning from this pandemic for future pandemics
15:30 to 16:00 Discussion INI 1
Wednesday 23rd September 2020
13:55 to 16:00 Theme 3: The Wider Context Chair: Nigel Shadbolt (University of Oxford) INI 1
14:00 to 14:45 Charlotte Watts (Department for International Development)
How does science interface with policy
14:45 to 16:00 Bernard Silverman (University of Oxford); Frank Kelly (University of Cambridge)
Panel Discussion
Thursday 24th September 2020
09:55 to 12:30 Theme 3: The Wider Context Chair Denis Mollison (Heriot-Watt University) INI 1
10:00 to 11:00 David Redding (Zoological Society of London)
Zoonotic disease spill-over in the context of global change
11:00 to 12:00 Tim Lenton (University of Exeter)
Inequality, real-time economics and future pandemics
12:00 to 12:30 Discussion INI 1
Friday 25th September 2020
09:55 to 11:30 Theme 3: The Wider Context - Chair - Chris Dye INI 1
10:00 to 11:00 Martin Rees (University of Cambridge)
Existential Risk
Three trends
enhance the probability of global catastrophes


First, the
rising global population, more demanding of energy and

resources, leads to novel anthropogenic pressures on the
biosphere --

climate change, loss of biodiversity, etc .

Second, the
greater interconnectedness of our civilisation allows

pandemics to rapidly cascade globally, and enhances our
vulnerability to

breakdown in supply chains, financial networks, etc .

Third, novel
technologies -- bio, cyber and AI -- empower small groups

with the ability (via error or terror) to cause massive
(even global)

disruption. Coping with this threat presents a challenge
to governance: it

will become ever harder to sustain the three goals of
offering all citizens

privacy, security and freedom.
11:00 to 11:30 Discussion Introduced by Kevin McConway (Open University) INI 1
University of Cambridge Research Councils UK
    Clay Mathematics Institute London Mathematical Society NM Rothschild and Sons