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Current use of stochastic methods in operational NWP/climate forecasting: are they physically justifiable

Presented by: 
G Shutts Met Office
Monday 23rd August 2010 - 16:45 to 17:45
INI Seminar Room 1
Session Title: 
Grand challenges and introduction to the week
The physical basis for current methods of stochastic parametrization in NWP/climate models is reviewed and their plausibility assessed with respect to unresolved or near-gridscale meteorological phenomena. This issue is closely related to that of the predictability of convective scale and mesoscale weather systems. The coarse-graining strategy is described and applied to high-resolution NWP model forecast output and cloud-resolving model simulations of deep, tropical convection. The results are used to provide some constraints on the stochastic backscatter and the perturbed physical tendency approaches.
Presentation Material: 
University of Cambridge Research Councils UK
    Clay Mathematics Institute London Mathematical Society NM Rothschild and Sons