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Simultaneous break point detection and variable selection in quantile regression models

Thursday 16th January 2014 - 10:30 to 11:00
INI Seminar Room 1
This talk discusses new model fitting techniques for quantiles of an observed data sequence, including methods for data segmentation and variable selection. The main contribution, however, is in providing a means to perform these two tasks simultaneously. This is achieved by matching the data with the best-fitting piecewise quantile regression model, where the fit is determined by a penalization derived from the minimum description length principle. The resulting optimization problem is solved with the use of genetic algorithms. The proposed, fully automatic procedures are, unlike traditional break point procedures, not based on repeated hypothesis tests, and do not require, unlike most variable selection procedures, the specification of a tuning parameter. Theoretical large-sample properties are derived. Empirical comparisons with existing break point and variable selection methods for quantiles indicate that the new procedures work well in practice.
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Presentation Material: 
University of Cambridge Research Councils UK
    Clay Mathematics Institute London Mathematical Society NM Rothschild and Sons