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Inter-annual variability and predictability of Arctic summer sea ice - review of previous years with focus on summer 2017

Presented by: 
David Schroeder University of Reading
Tuesday 17th October 2017 - 15:00 to 16:30
INI Seminar Room 2
Observations give evidence that the Arctic sea ice is in decline. While some of the decline can be attributed to natural variability, Arctic sea ice is a prominent indicator of Climate Change. Is it possible to predict inter-annual variability of Arctic summer sea ice beyond the climate trend? Sources and limitations of sea ice predictability are discussed. Arctic summer sea ice can be accurately predicted using melt pond fraction in spring. This is due to a strong positive feedback mechanism: more ponds reduce the albedo; a lower albedo causes more melting; more melting increases pond fraction. The variability of Arctic sea ice during the last 5 years is analyzed including previous predictions and how they performed. What can we learn for sea ice modelling?
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University of Cambridge Research Councils UK
    Clay Mathematics Institute London Mathematical Society NM Rothschild and Sons